What if Trump gets re-elected?

Americans are into the final months of the election campaign in the U.S. The Democrats had their nominating convention first and the Republicans are holding theirs this week.

This election is important for a number of reasons.

If Trump gets re-elected — and that is a real possibility because of the way the president is elected using the antiquated Electoral College system — the outcome will imply a stressful time for Canada.

He is, after all, a bully and always denigrates those who dare to disagree with or criticize him. This makes disagreements about trade and border issues almost impossible to resolve short of a full capitulation to his demands.

In all likelihood, an economic recovery under a Trump administration would be slow and skewed towards the benefit of his cronies. U.S. demand for our exports could fall.

International alliances and institutions such as NATO, the OECD, WHO and the

World Trade Organization will wither as Trump withdraws support. The beneficiaries will be Russia and China.

Given his inability to provide leadership in fighting Covid-19, the virus will still be a major factor constraining trade and travel for years to come, even if a safe and effective vaccine is available.

If the Republicans retain the presidency and control of the Senate, the stalemate in the Congress would continue and the conservative majority in the Supreme Court would increase.

Even more daunting is the distinct possibility of something approaching civil war in the U.S. itself. This is especially so if Republicans continue to try and suppress voting by Blacks and Hispanics and try to cut back on Medicare and Social Security revenues (by lowering payroll taxes) and benefits.

Given these unpalatable possibilities, Canada needs to prepare now for four more years of Trump at the helm.

As it happens, this preparation will include many of the initiatives we will need to undertake to emerge successfully from the recession that will likely follow the pandemic.

How? First, we need to get government finances at all levels restructured to permit each level to meet the demands they will be facing during this decade.

Second, we need to strengthen our relations with our other trading partners.

Third, we need to tighten up our activities in trans-border relations including the Joint Commission, trans-border treaties such as the Columbia River Treaty, trans-border travel restrictions, NAFTA II disputes, etc.

Domestically, we need to push the usage of atomic energy to generate power by developing an industry using small-scale reactors with minimum risks of pollution, thereby reducing our carbon footprint.

We should promote the immigration of skilled workers — particularly if the US continues to cede the field by constraining such immigration.

Immigration is essential if we are to remain both competitive and offset the rapid aging of our population.

We need also to think of how we can strengthen the social safety net. Two particular areas need attention.

First is the question of providing more accessible child care that allows (mostly) women to enter the labour force. Subsidizing child care and providing tax incentives to firms providing such facilities for their workers will go a long way to resolving this issue.

The other is a determined effort to eliminate poverty throughout Canada. Children raised in poverty are its true victims. A hungry child, ill clothed and frequently ill-housed does not learn well, incurs frequent illnesses and suffers a high probability of becoming an early school dropout and a marginal participant in the labour force; that is, the last to be hired and first to be laid off.

Such a cadre of individuals is a drain on society and can be eliminated with some targeted programs.

We need to begin now some pilot programs aimed at eliminating this scourge on our national standard of living.

Dealing with the pandemic has forced us to take broad fiscal actions.

Now is the time to face underlying challenges and take targeted actions to rebuild our economy in a solid way.

If the U.S. descends further into chaos we will urgently require this strength to go our own way.

David Bond is a retired bank economist who resides in Kelowna.