Climate change and employment

In an earlier column, I raised the suggestion that shifting the economy from carbon fuels to the green economy would eventually result in an increase in unemployment. I made brief comments about the changes in employment associated with development, operation, infrastructure and maintenance. The differences in employment for all these items are a result of complexities for all forms and steps of the carbon industries. The differences in complexities include the vast amounts of piping, valves, pumps, controls, electrical, emission systems, vessels, ducts, fans, buildings and enclosures in contrast to the simplicity of green energy.

Think of solar and wind power. Even hydroelectric systems are simpler. The only green energy system that is equivalent is nuclear power. Heavy oil basic processing has the additional complexities of mining or in situ gathering processes such as SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage).

All the standard complexities exist for coal-fired power plants including the 200foot-high boiler and boiler building and high-speed steam turbine and generator. Many coal-fired power plants have the added complexities of mining and cooling ponds.

Not as well known is that we do not use natural gas directly from natural gas wells but as a resulting processed product after the removal of products such as sulfur, methane, ethane and propane from the raw well gas. Natural gas is a defined hydrocarbon product for public sale. Again, natural gas processing has the usual complexities with added complexities of the gathering system from the raw product wells and a process for handling sulfur for sale or disposal.

In addition, for all carbon fuels the required distribution systems of the finished products are more complex than the electrical distribution of most green energy. The exceptions to this are coal fired power plants which also have electrical distribution. The other exception is green hydrogen where a pipeline distribution system would be similar to oil and gas distribution.

These differences in complexity result in the differences in employment through all stages from development and use including design, fabrications, construction, infrastructure (including distribution), operation, maintenance, and finally to demolition, site cleanup and restoration. Anyone who has not had the opportunity to see or visit Fort McMurray, a refinery, a coal fined power plant or a natural gas processing plant (particularly the world scale Shell Caroline Gas Plant) would likely be impressed with their complexity.

In addition to the differences in complexity of producing of carbon fuels relative to green energy, the difference in the complexity of the internal combustion motor relative to the complexity of the electric motor will result in increased unemployment in vehicle maintenance.

The internal combustion motor has 2,000 moving parts (some variations with type and number of cylinders). Internal combustion motors also have more complex drive systems.

The likely increased life time of use and the development of automated vehicles will also increase unemployment in vehicle manufacturing

Aggressive green economy construction will offset some of the unemployment. The final demolition, site cleanup and restoration of carbon fuel facilities will offset additional unemployment for the next 20 years or so. As the conversion slows down unemployment will increase. Fortunately, the employment associated with carbon fuels is a significant portion of the economy but not a major one.

Also, addressing climate change concerns will result in a better, healthier, more technically satisfying world with cheaper (relative to value) products.

With government supported basic income, we will realize that employment is not a requirement for all for having a happy and fulfilling life style.