Shift focus from victims to transmitters

I’m sick of COVID-19 statistics. Every news report tells me how many million have died, how many thousands infected, how many hundreds in hospitals. So, of course, I’m going to throw you some more statistics.

I pulled up some figures from the BC Ministry of Health. I correlated them with B.C. population figures.

Surprise, surprise! The elderly are NOT the most at risk for infection.

Certainly they’re most at risk for death. As of a month ago, three-quarters of all deaths were among those over 70.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re already on their last legs. I suspect the same would hold true if I took statistics for almost any disease, illness, or disability.

But not for infection. The infection rate among those over 60 is significantly lower than for younger adults. Among those over 60, the infection rate is about 1.4 per 1000. Among the 20-29 age group, the infection rate is more than twice as high — 3.5 per 1000.

If you doubt my calculations, I’ll send you the spreadsheet.

Why should younger people have a much higher infection rate?

Because they’re the ones who dance the night away in crowded night clubs. They’re the ones who gather in sports bars to cheer in unison for their team. They’re the ones — not all, but many — who ignore instructions about distancing, masks and handwashing.

Seniors — those not confined to institutions, that is — already practice social isolation. They don’t go out as much. They don’t have many visitors. They don’t stay up late. They don’t march in crowded protests. They don’t join mass rallies.

Seniors are more vulnerable. But they’re the least likely to catch the virus. Or to transmit it.

Indeed, if I could remove from my statistical analysis those people who have been afflicted with COVID-19 because of crowded conditions in nursing homes, I suspect that the elderly would have the lowest rates of infection of any age group.

It seems to me, looking back, that provincial medical health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry had exactly the right prescription for reducing the deaths from COVID-19. But she assumed that people could and would act rationally during this crisis.

That’s true of the elderly — if they haven’t lapsed into dementia — but it’s not true of younger generations.

Simply because their brains haven’t fully developed yet.

Psychologist and evolutionist Michael Dowd describes the development of the human brain in evolutionary terms. (Warning: if you read the Bible as the final authority on all things scientific, quit reading this column right now.)

Dowd calls the most primitive parts of our brains, perched on top of the spinal cord, the “lizard” brain. It controls instinctive functions: fight, flight, freeze, and fornicate.

The next part to develop, wrapped around our lizard origins, he calls “the small furry mammal” brain. It concerns itself with nurturing and belonging. Think of a mother cat with kittens.

The third part of the brain to develop, Dowd calls our “monkey mind.” It can now deal with ideas, but not with the relative importance of those ideas. Like a monkey in a tree, it swings erratically from one thought to another.

And finally, we humans develop what psychologists call the prefrontal cortex, the major lobes of the brain right behind our foreheads. These deal with meaning and purpose — so of course Dowd calls them our “higher porpoise” brain.

This brain region controls complex thinking, personality expression, decision making, and social behaviour. It makes comparisons, connections, and corrections. It monitors and controls the instinctive reactions of the more primitive parts of our brains.

But humans don’t fully develop their prefrontal cortex until around 25 years old. (Part of me suspects some people never do.)

Which is why you cannot count on young people acting rationally.

School kids will practice isolation all day inside their classes. Then they’ll clump together outside. Young drivers learn safety, until they get behind the wheel.

I remember taking a Scout troop to clean up a streambed. They filled several garbage bags with litter. And then, on their way back to the parking lot, some of them tossed their candy wrappers into the bushes.

They didn’t, or couldn’t, connect their own behaviour to what they’d been practicing.

You can talk your teeth out about safe distancing, wearing masks, etc., etc. You can pass rules, impose fines and curfews. And it just doesn’t register.

Our tactics need to change. To defeat COVID-19 we now need to focus on transmitters, not victims.