Obama’s missteps anger allies around the globe
HONG KONG — Barack Obama has managed a unique diplomatic triple.
The U.S. president has simultaneously angered close allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He may soon add to the list by gravely disappointing another longtime partner if he turns down the Keystone XL pipeline that is to run 1,897 kilometres from Hardisty, Alberta, across the Canadian border to Nebraska where it will connect to an already approved pipeline to the Gulf of Mexico.
Obama’s actions and errors have created more doubts about the U.S.’s global leadership and the country’s international standing than at any time since Jimmy Carter’s ill-starred presidency.
Obama’s latest foreign mess is where it might have been least expected. Relations between Washington and western European capitals are unnecessarily complicated right now because of revelations that American intelligence services monitored the phone calls of dozens of European political leaders as well as tens of thousands of other Europeans.
The latest stunner over the weekend was that Obama himself has apparently known since 2010 that his spies were eavesdropping on the conversations of Europe’s most powerful leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The current row with Europe follows different but equally damaging developments in the Far East. Political and business leaders here remain bewildered as to why Obama chose to blow off two summit meetings in the region this month, as well as visits to Malaysia and the Philippines.
The excuse offered at the time was the budget deadlock in Congress that led to a partial shutdown of government. But the decision made a nonsense of the president’s bold talk about the importance of his country’s military and economic pivot towards Asia. Even before Obama went AWOL, most Asians were having fits over the mostly unchecked growth of Chinese military, political and economic power in the region, and especially its bellicose claims to oil-rich waters far from China’s mainland.
With Obama nowhere to be seen in Asia this month, China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, filled the void, happily asserting Beijing’s regional pre-eminence at leaders summits in Bali in Indonesia and Brunei, and during a state visit to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Although less obvious, Obama’s preoccupation with domestic rather than global affairs has increased Hong Kong’s sense of isolation at a time when Beijing appears to be intent on rewriting the rules it had agreed to regarding its relationship with this former British colony. A new chapter in that saga occurred last week when, without explanation, the licence of one of Hong Kong’s most popular television stations was suddenly not renewed. This development cannot be directly tied to Obama or U.S. foreign policy, but that such developments pass unremarked underscores a profound slide in U.S. influence and prestige in Asia.
Obama’s third grave problem area is the Middle East. The perception among longtime allies such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel is that the president has been wrong about almost everything he has done for several years.
Obama is seriously on the outs with Saudi Arabia for not having tried to topple Syria’s Bashar Assad and for having been outfoxed by Assad’s Russian backer, Vladimir Putin. He has upset the Persian Gulf sheikdoms and Israel’s exasperated Benjamin Netanyahu by doing a volte-face on Iran. His mistake, as they see it, was to have offered an olive branch to Tehran rather than a threat of strong military action if Iran did not end its quest for nuclear weapons.
The president had already botched the Arab Spring by being slow and uncertain about how to respond to events in Tunisia and Libya. He responded to Egypt’s peaceful democratic revolution by sending mixed signals before and after the military crushed the elected government this summer and followed this up a few weeks later by erasing his own “red line” in the sand with Syria after Assad’s forces crossed that line by using chemical weapons against its own citizens.
Curiously, after having made a lot of noise about the need for democracy in the Middle East, Obama hardly ever mentions this any more.
Much of Obama’s problems can be traced to his weak political position at home, where even the initial introduction of ObamaCare has been a shambles. Allies lack confidence in Obama because they see a president hobbled by domestic concerns and uncertain about how or when to act decisively internationally.
The Middle East wonders if the U.S. even cares much any more about events there. Europe ponders why the U.S. spies on its leaders. Asia frets over China’s long shadow while Beijing undoubtedly regards Obama’s blunders as a gift.
Meanwhile, Canada — which has the world’s largest trading relationship with the U.S. as well as so many shared cultural and sports traditions — stews over the fate of the Keystone XL pipeline and the hundreds of billions of dollars that may be lost if it is cancelled, as Obama dithers again over how to handle yet another crucial foreign file.