Ex-oil tycoon channels past to plot next Russian Revolution
ZURICH — A century after Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin plotted revolution from Zurich, Russia’s most famous ex-prisoner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, harbours similar ambitions from self-chosen exile in the Swiss city.
Almost a year into his freedom, Khodorkovsky insists the tide is turning against President Vladimir Putin as the Russian economy heads into recession. Government revenue has been squeezed and the ruble has tumbled to record lows because of a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed over Ukraine conflict.
“Putin has far less room to manoeuvre financially, which creates difficulties for him, and as a result the cost of any mistakes he may make could be critical,” Khodorkovsky, 51, said. “For Putin, even $120 (US) a barrel for oil is a problem because, with his system of rule, he can’t survive without the revenue from raw materials growing every year.”
Once Russia’s richest man with a fortune of $15 billion at the time of his imprisonment in 2003, the former Yukos Oil Co., tycoon is seeking to galvanize the faltering opposition to Putin’s 15-year rule. Khodorkovsky says he’s undeterred by the president’s ratings of more than 80 per cent after months of standoff with the U.S. and European Union.
Khodorkovsky says the euphoria provoked by Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in March will evaporate in the coming five years as the population feels the impact of the economic slowdown. Oil, Russia’s main export earner, slumped to the lowest in 5½ years Thursday and extended losses Friday. West Texas Intermediate futures fell as much as 1.9 per cent in New York to $58.80 a barrel.
There’s at least a 50 per cent chance that Putin won’t last the next decade, according to the former tycoon, who pins his hope on a coup by the Russian leader’s inner circle because in his view elections won’t bring about any transfer of power.
“I believe that the problem for Putin will come from within his own entourage,” he said Thursday.