Nightmares of 2001 recession linger
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Nora Beatriz Diaz says her choice for president in Sunday’s election was essentially decided six years ago, when she was hired by a government jobs program.
Now 55, the mother of two struggled for years to make ends meet. But through the “Argentina Works” program created by Cristina Fernandez’s government, Diaz got a job cleaning and doing light construction.
“If I lose this job, I’ll go back to zero,” Diaz said of her $275-a-month salary.
“This government has to stay in power.”
That attitude helps explain why Fernandez’s hand-picked successor, Daniel Scioli, is leading in the polls despite the country’s many hardships: rampant inflation, a stagnant economy and a battle with creditors that has made Argentina an international financial pariah.
Diaz is among the estimated 30 per cent of voters who political analysts say form the core of Kirchnerismo, the political movement of Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner. The couple’s supporters credit them with lifting the economy after a devastating 2001-2002 financial crisis while also providing a lifeline to the poor.
Today, an estimated 15 million Argentines, or about 35 per cent of the population, receive some kind of direct financial assistance from the government, according to researchers at the Catholic University of Argentina.
The programs are so popular that leading opposition candidate Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, felt compelled to tailor his campaign to take them into consideration.
Macri initially ran a promarket campaign, promising to battle corruption and liberalize Argentina’s protectionist economy. But with his poll numbers sagging, Macri in recent months has talked about achieving “zero poverty” and promised to maintain and even increase some social spending.
“People are afraid that their social programs will be taken away,” said Leonardo Rajchert, president of a mobile phone distribution company and Macri supporter.
“Macri won’t do that. He’ll just manage them better.”
Scioli was leading in a half dozen private polls published over the past week, but the race is tight.
In one poll, by Ricardo Rouvier and Associates, 40.1 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Scioli compared to 29.2 per cent for Macri. Another 21.6 per cent said they would vote for Sergio Massa, a former Fernandez loyalist who broke ranks to form his own party.
To win in the first round, a candidate must get at least 45 per cent of the votes, or 40 per cent and a 10 per cent spread over the nearest competitor. If not, there will be a run-off between top two candidates on Nov. 22.
While the country’s economy is limping and inflation runs at about 30 per cent, for Argentines, the reference point for a worst-case scenario is the financial meltdown of 2001 that plunged millions of members of the middle class into poverty. Many voters seem inclined to stick to the status quo out of fear that a different kind of presidential administration could trigger unknown problems.
Scioli, the governor of the Buenos Aires province and a former vice-president, has suggested he will continue Fernandez’s policies but make small adjustments where needed through what he calls “gradualismo,” or gradual change.