Ample reason to doubt poll numbers, but something is afoot

Fickle polls are no more fair or faithful than politics itself.

This is a good thing to remember as we read the first opinion poll in more than a decade — perhaps the first such poll since Brad Wall became leader of the Saskatchewan Party — that shows the NDP ahead.

Stunningly, the leaderless NDP has surged to a nine-percentagepoint lead — NDP, 49 per cent; Sask. Party, 40 per cent; Liberals, six per cent; Green Party, five per cent — according to a May 15 and 16 survey of 2,000 people by Mainstreet Research.

Whether or not it’s a “sea change,” as described, it’s still a big deal.

That said, it would be a much bigger deal if Saskatchewan wasn’t 3 1/2 years away from its next general election in November 2020.

It would be a bigger deal if these polling results weren’t so obviously driven by potentially fleeting post-2017/18-budget anger.

It will be a huge deal if these numbers hold in the next year or so — a possibility if the NDP and its new leader is taken seriously as a viable alternative without also backsliding from its current popularity.

Mostly, though, it would be a much bigger deal if we could trust that the poll’s “rest of Saskatchewan” numbers are correctly showing the NDP is dead-even with the Sask. Party, each with 46 per cent.

For various reasons, that’s a difficult thing to believe right now.

For starters, it’s just one poll that, at best, is scientifically accurate 19 times out of 20 plus or minus 3.7 per cent.

That this poll suggests the Sask. Party’s “rural” support has dramatically dropped 25 to 30 percentage points is ample reason to be suspicious that this is the one time out of 20 where things in polls do go awry.

Short of the shuttering of the Saskatchewan Transportation Company (and it’s debatable whether this is actually a bigger issue in Regina, where the jobs are), there wasn’t much in the budget to cause as big an uproar.

Libraries? The Sask. Party restored funding.

Grants-in-lieu cuts? The cities took the biggest hit, sparing RMs and others who get grants-in-lieu from SaskTel.

Overall tax hikes? Yes, everyone’s mad, but the Sask. Party spared farmers from diesel fuel and fertilizer/seed/chemical taxes.

Moreover, Mainstreet’s “rest of Saskatchewan” lumps Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and the north in with the Sask. Party’s 29 true “rural” seats, further skewing the polling numbers.

Ask yourself this: Does this one poll change a 40-year Saskatchewan voting pattern, that will now see half those 29 rural seats going to Ryan Meili or whomever else becomes NDP leader by the 2020 vote?

Yeah. Thought so.

That said, far worse than being cautiously suspicious would be to ignore the obvious ... which includes an emerging trend line (Mainstreet’s April polling showed the overall provincial numbers to be: 47 per cent Sask. Party; 42 per cent NDP). Something is happening.

This poll tells us the NDP has clearly reclaimed its beachhead in Regina, with 58 per cent of support compared with a mere 29 per cent for the Sask. Party.

If these Regina numbers hold (and there is more reason to suspect it’s possible they will) the entire Regina caucus of

Tina Beaudry-Mellor, Kevin Doherty, Warren Steinley, Gene Makowsky, Christine Tell,

Laura Ross, Mark Docherty and Muhammad Fiaz is wiped out in an NDP avalanche in the next election.

Nor are the poll numbers great news for the likes of Saskatoon MLAs Don Morgan, Gord Wyant, Ken Cheveldayoff, Bronwyn

Eyre, Jennifer Campeau, Paul Merriman, David Buckingham, Lisa Lambert and Eric Olauson. With Saskatoon numbers showing the NDP at 46 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for the Sask. Party, their political careers become a coin flip. The same can be said for Sask. Party MLAs from Prince Albert and Moose Jaw.

And not withstanding the legitimate doubts about the rural numbers, Sask. Party MLAs like Jeremy Harrison (Meadow Lake), Greg Ottenbreit (Yorkton) or Herb Cox (The Battlefords) have little reason for comfort.

Politics is fickle ... almost as fickle as political polling.