VANSTONE ANALYSIS
Dissecting Riders’ loss
Some things, such as a Kristen Wiig movie, should not be watched — let alone viewed a second time.
Another case in point: Saturday’s CFL game between the Calgary Stampeders and the visiting Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Calgary won 27-10 and, if anything, the score flattered the Roughriders. Saskatchewan’s only hope was to bore the worthy opposition into unconsciousness. As it was, the Green and White nearly sent this creaky correspondent into slumberland.
Midway through the second quarter, with the Roughriders’ punt-oriented offence working at peak inefficiency, I leaned back in a chair at Leader-Post World Headquarters and felt the eyebrows getting heavier. The chins dipped for a millisecond until — ZING! — I snapped out of the trance. I would regret doing so.
The Roughriders versus Stampeders had to be the worst sports television outside of, well, any program that features Stephen A. Smith.
So naturally I watched the game again. (Confidential memo to Regina Leader-Post editorin-chief Stephen Ripley: Am I eligible for hazard pay?)
For the sequel, I was armed with a remote control and the blessing that is a fast-forward button. As a precaution, my sainted wife was standing to the left of the recliner, holding a mallet in case I nodded off once again. A marriage, you see, is a 50-50 partnership.
On Saturday, however, the Stampeders and Roughriders were anything but equals.
At halftime, Calgary had a 17-0 lead and a 15-3 advantage in first downs. Through 30 minutes, the Roughriders had 34 net yards — 10 fewer than Calgary gained on a comically easy touchdown pass from Bo Levi Mitchell to Marquay McDaniel. Which brings us to the first item ...
DEJA VU
On July 1, the Roughriders lined up with two defensive backs on one side, their impossible task being to cover three receivers. Nobody ended up covering the Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ Weston Dressler, who was all alone in the end zone for a nine-yard major.
The Roughriders were so determined to address coverage busts of that nature that, three weeks later, the exact same thing happened. Two defenders. Three receivers. McDaniel. Touchdown. Eek!
The Roughriders have given up a three-on-two twice in the first four games. Perhaps they should hire, ohhh, Jacques Lemaire as a defensive consultant. Can a football team use the trap?
One-on-ones are bad enough. See: Sam Williams attempting to cover Lemar Durant, who was wide open for a 19-yard payoff pitch from Mitchell.
The Roughriders got a break when Kamar Jorden was all by himself on a post, only to be overthrown by Mitchell. This, in the Roughriders’ vernacular, is known as stifling defence.
PPP IS PPPOOR
In recent weeks, the positive plays percentage (PPP) has appeared in this treasured space as a means of evaluating the consistency with which the Roughriders execute.
Per this formula, a win is awarded to the offence or defence on each play from scrimmage. A positive outcome for the offence is defined here as a touchdown, a first down, a firstand-10 play that gains at least five yards or a second-down play that creates at least a third-and-short opportunity. (After Saturday, we might add “not sacked!” in an effort to be charitable to the Roughriders’ offence.)
On Saturday, Saskatchewan operated at 40.9 per cent efficiency on offence, whereas the Roughriders’ defence won only 42.2 per cent of its plays. Over the previous three games, Saskatchewan’s winning percentages were 55.2 (offence) and 56.8 (defence).
FOUR-THOUGHT
Roughriders (cue long job description) head coach, defensive co-ordinator, general manager and (is it over yet?) vice-president of (almost there) football operations Chris Jones (pant/ wheeze/gasp) continues to deemphasize the three-man rush that was so unsuccessful July 1 against Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan sent four pass rushers slightly more than 70 per cent of the time July 8 during a 37-20 victory over the visiting Hamilton Tiger-Cats. In Calgary, Jones sent four men 68 per cent of the time.
The three-man rush was used 16 per cent of the time on Saturday. Willie Jefferson, incontestably the Roughriders’ best defensive player of the young season, managed to record two of his three quarterback pressures while being accompanied by only two pass rushers.
Jones rushed with six men 13 per cent of the time without much success. Calgary easily picked up the blitzers on the touchdown toss to Durant. Earlier, Mitchell and McDaniel had beaten the blitz for their second 44-yard collaboration of the night.
Calgary, by the way, sent five pass rushers while registering two of its five first-half sacks of Roughriders quarterback Kevin Glenn. The Stampeders also registered sacks on two fourman rushes and one three-man deployment.
ROUGHRIDERZ-Z-Z-Z ...
Evidently, the inattention wasn’t restricted to this somnolent scribe. The Roughriders’ defence was caught off-guard late in the second quarter.
After Stampeders tailback Jerome Messam ran for 10 yards, Calgary hurried back to the line of scrimmage and Saskatchewan clearly was not ready for the next play.
When the ball was snapped, only two Roughriders defensive linemen were in a three-point stance. Chalk up nine more yards for Messam. Given the Roughriders’ ill-preparedness for that play, it could have been worse.
Were the signals slow in being relayed? Were the defensive players simply caught napping? Was it a combination of both? Is anyone still reading this? (Good. Thank you. Onward ...)
SHORT-CIRCUITS
Although the Roughriders have a ball-control offence, the nature of their passing attack rivalled that of the opposition over the first three games. Then came Saturday.
Against Calgary, the Roughriders’ average pass travelled 7.52 yards downfield. The Stampeders’ average: 11.88.
Over the previous three contests, Saskatchewan’s average pass covered 9.21 yards. The opposition’s average: 9.30.
The Stampeders’ carnivorous pass rush influenced the amount of time Glenn had to look downfield on Saturday. Mitchell, by contrast, wasn’t sacked once and was therefore able to go over the top for some big gains and one near miss.
Saskatchewan’s offence was so timid on Saturday that only 22.6 per cent of its passes travelled 10 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage. Calgary’s percentage: 35.3.
Prior to the Calgary game, 36 per cent of the Roughriders’ passes travelled at least 10 yards. The opposition’s percentage: 36.2. Again, a virtual saw-off.
Now there is more of an overall disparity. Over four games, 33.7 per cent of the Roughriders’ passes have covered 10-plus yards, compared to 38.4 per cent for the opposition.
So what does this deluge of data tell us?
Even though Saskatchewan reputedly has a dink-and-dunk offence, that approach has been mirrored by the opposition for the most part.
In fact, the Roughriders were the more aggressive passing team against Winnipeg, despite the fact that Blue Bombers quarterback Matt Nichols had touchdown tosses of 31, 35 and 87 yards (plus the aforementioned nine-yarder to the uncovered Dressler).
But again, the Calgary game changed everything — including the channel, in all likelihood. Other viewers, I suspect, simply gave up. (CLICK.)