Singh a good bet to lead federal New Democrats

The first voting window is now open in the federal NDP’s leadership campaign. And there’s a real possibility developing that it won’t take more than a single ballot to elect the party’s next leader.

After entering the leadership campaign with an organizational show of force featuring a large number of endorsements and a huge lead in fundraising, Jagmeet Singh has been able to close the campaign on a high note as well — raising a substantial prospect of a first-ballot victory similar to the one Jack Layton achieved as a caucus outsider in 2003.

In the latter stages of the campaign, Singh has added well-respected figures including Nathan Cullen and former leadership candidate Peter Julian to his list of endorsers. And rather than shying away from strong policy stances, he’s set himself apart from the field with a push toward drug decriminalization and an end to racial profiling, while effectively fending off challenges during the course of leadership debates.

But perhaps the most noteworthy development for the NDP’s purposes is the conversation that’s developed as to the significance of Singh’s Sikh faith among Quebec voters. And that issue may ultimately prove to have been rendered irrelevant by the candidate who previously made the most concerted effort to raise it.

In response to Bloc Quebecois Leader Martine Ouellete’s claim that Singh is too religious to be a political leader, leadership candidate Guy Caron delivered a scathing reply that pointed to the leaders of faith within Ouellette’s own movement (and particularly its most progressive elements).

Caron’s response fit ideally with his positioning as an opposition leader capable of disarming opponents with an incisive wit. But in affirming Caron’s own strongest qualities, it also made for a compelling argument as to why much of the case against Singh is based on false assumptions about the compatibility between progressive politics and religious beliefs.

Moreover, Caron’s recognition that displays of faith shouldn’t preclude a person from a political leadership role leaves little room for any claim that they should be accepted as a barrier to the receipt of basic public services. And from that starting point, it’s hard to see how any NDP leader could accept Caron’s intention to avoid calling out the National Assembly’s attempt to discriminate on exactly that basis through Bill 62.

In the end, the public debate over what has been seen as one of Singh’s main weaknesses seems to have both answered a major strategic question, and vindicated his position in substance. And this even as most other measurable factors in the campaign, including membership registrations, fundraising, volunteer strength and media coverage, look to be operating heavily in his favour.

To be sure, and particularly in the absence of much reliable polling, there’s still a slim chance that another candidate could emerge on top.

In theory, Charlie Angus could hold onto enough support from existing members to eke out a multi-ballot win. Caron’s own ascent throughout the campaign might push enough late deciders into his camp to give him a path to victory. Or Niki Ashton might yet be able to assemble her much-discussed social movement among the voting membership.

(Indeed, for the record, Caron ranked ahead of Singh on my own ballot due to his stronger and more progressive economic message built around a basic income, a green transition and an end to poverty.)

But it looks most likely that Singh will emerge as the next leader of the NDP. And Canadian progressives will have reason to look forward to what Singh might accomplish once his focus moves beyond the NDP’s leadership campaign.

Most other measurable factors in the campaign ... look to be operating heavily in his favour.