All leadership hopefuls in the province must overcome a lot of ‘ifs’
Some face a more difficult road to victory than others, but no one is a sure thing
Let’s play “wins if ” ... as in, “Saskatchewan leadership hopeful (blank) will win if ...”
Ryan Meili wins the NDP leadership if ... he adds enough new memberships while still successfully appealing to an aging and rather conservative Saskatchewan NDP.
Meili must convince the existing membership he isn’t as left and unelectable as he was seen to be in 2009 and 2013. His platform has both helped and hindered him in that regard.
Trent Wotherspoon wins the NDP leadership if ... the party hasn’t really changed from its moderately practical approach and if influential unions truly favour him over Meili. Given this may not be the same NDP as under Allan Blakeney, Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert, Wotherspoon still has to appeal to a younger, progressive crowd.
Picking up the endorsement of former Saskatoon Northwest candidate Nicole White last week will certainly help. Wotherspoon wins if he is seen as a candidate with enough boldness to yank the party out of its mud hole without being seen as overly opportunistic and wishy-washy.
Tina Beaudry-Mellor wins the Saskatchewan Party leadership if ... we are all dead wrong about the expected rural influence in the Sask. Party race. She must dominate Regina and Saskatoon in a way no one now expects, plus steal other votes from the ruralbased leadership hopefuls in a way no one anticipates.
Beaudry-Mellor only wins if the party wants new direction and the social policy changes she advocates.
Gordon Wyant wins the Sask. Party leadership if ... being seen as a Liberal in the party ranks isn’t the tremendous disadvantage it appears to be, if the party buys into his notion that he can deliver and/or make equalization a winnable issue and if there is an interest in addressing some serious perception problems like the Global Transportation Hub. He needs to avoid splitting Saskatoon votes with Ken Cheveldayoff and needs more rural support.
Wyant wins only if he is seen as a Sask. Party guy.
Ken Cheveldayoff wins the Sask. Party leadership if ... years and years of cultivating contacts within the Sask. Party ranks pays off big time without making him appear to be overly politically ambitious. He needs to sweep Saskatoon, have a strong showing in Regina and convert his relentless rural travel into at least strong third- and perhaps fourth-ballot support. Cheveldayoff wins if he hits the sweet spot between those wanting change and opposing change and if all his long tenure in public life isn’t weighed down by negatives.
Scott Moe wins the Sask. Party leadership if ... he is seen as more than an inadequate replacement/placeholder for Jim Reiter (whose campaign machinery
Moe inherited) and if caucus support delivers for Moe in a big way. MLA endorsements are important, but are less meaningful if MLAs don’t convince the party faithful to follow. Moe wins if urban Sask. Party voters don’t have a negative reaction to him and if issues like a 20-yearold, at-fault accident resulting in a fatality that mysteriously became public don’t matter.
Moe wins if the Sask. Party is OK with someone with significantly less charisma than Brad Wall delivering Wall’s agenda.
Alanna Koch wins the Sask. Party leadership if ... the party truly desires the status quo and if she truly has the wink-and-nod support from influential party establishment, big Sask. Party business money, executive council and maybe even a silent Wall himself. There have already been quiet grumbles in party ranks that the fix is in for Koch. Watch for further big-name business endorsements for Koch.
But leadership campaigns like this are up to the rank and file and Koch’s unabated campaigning in rural Saskatchewan may pay off in a big way. Koch wins if Sask. Party party voters get past the notion that she has never been elected to an office higher than school trustee, if she gets solid city support and if there is no backlash/issue with her being the hierarchy’s choice.