CANADIENS FACING LONG PLAYOFF ODDS
Habs would have to go on magnificent run in final 40 games to make post-season
Math was never my best subject in school, but let’s give this a shot anyway.
The Montreal Canadiens enter their bye week sporting an 18-204 record for 40 points after winning their last two games, including a 5-2 victory over the Vancouver Canucks Sunday night at the Bell Centre.
Last season, it took 95 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, so the Canadiens would need 55 points in their final 40 games to hit that mark.
I believe that works out to a record equivalent of 26-11-3.
Yep, I’ve triple-checked the numbers and that is correct. My Grade 10 math teacher — a class I failed on my first attempt — would be proud of me. (I passed it the second time).
The people who run sportsclubstats.com are much better at numbers than I am and they figured the Canadiens’ chance of making the playoffs after Sunday’s games was 2.6 per cent.
That reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber in which Lloyd Christmas (played by
Jim Carrey) asks Mary Swanson (Lauren Holly) about the chances of them hooking up.
“Not good,” she says.
“You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?” he responds.
“I’d say more like one out of a million.”
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance. Yeah!”
Maybe Canadiens coach
Claude Julien remembers that movie.
“When we get back, we’ve got a real good challenge ahead of us,” Julien said after Sunday’s game.
“Hopefully, we’re up to it and we’ll take advantage of it. I think the beauty of this sport are the challenges that are offered to you. You embrace those challenges and try and make the best of them. So I’m hoping our team is going to be in that mindset.”
The Canadiens won’t hit the ice again until Friday, for a scheduled 4 p.m. practice in Brossard, Que. Their next game is Saturday at the Bell Centre against the Boston Bruins. The odds of the Canadiens going something like 26-11-3 to finish the season are basically slim to none (to be more precise, 2.6 per cent).
This is a team whose longest winning streak this season is five games. They also have a threegame win streak and three twogame streaks. That’s it.
The Canadiens also have one seven-game losing streak (0-6-1), two five-game losing streaks and a three-game losing streak (0-2-1).
When Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin met with the media before Sunday’s game, he said inconsistency has been the biggest problem this season, along with a lack of chemistry between top offensive producers Jonathan Drouin and Max Pacioretty, a slow start by goalie Carey Price and the absence of Alexander Radulov and Andrei Markov, both of whom left town as free agents after last season.
Don’t expect the chemistry to change with Drouin and Pacioretty. Price has regained his form. Radulov and Markov aren’t coming back.
“In a perfect world, would I love to add a piece to help them? Of course,” Bergevin said about possible trades this season. “But to sacrifice the future and be taking a major risk to hurt the organization for the long term, I’m not ready to do that. And to be honest with you, the shortterm solution, there’s nobody out there that I’m aware of that’s going to come and turn this thing around.”
So it’s up to the guys in the room now to try to get around 55 points from the final 40 games.
“You look at our group and at times we’ve shown how capable we are,” said Brendan Gallagher, who scored his team-leading
16th goal of the season against the Canucks.
“We’ve played against some of the best teams and looked really good. But it’s just been a little too inconsistent in our game, and that’s kind of been the frustrating part for this group.
We haven’t been able to piece it together night after night and really get on a streak and start to feel good about our game. But hopefully it’s coming now.
“We haven’t been able to piece it together night after night and really get on a streak and start to feel good about our game. But hopefully it’s coming now. Last couple of games, I think two of our better games this year. So hopefully after the break we come back and have the same mindset.”
Julien was asked what his main take-away has been from a disappointing first half of the season.
“Certainly not satisfied,” the coach said. “We shouldn’t be satisfied and maybe even to the point disappointed with some of the things that have happened and set us back. But right now, all you can do is look at the future and it’s about how are we going to finish.
“We’ve got a good challenge here and hopefully we’re up to that challenge and hopefully we can gain some ground.”
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?