Modest gains would be ‘big step’ forward for NDP in byelections

Despite winning back two Saskatoon seats last year, the Saskatchewan NDP is expected to have a difficult time sustaining its electoral momentum when voters in three Saskatchewan Party strongholds go to the polls this week.

Advance voting began Friday in the Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current constituencies, which were left vacant by a death and two resignations.

The bulk of the voters will cast their ballots Thursday, two weeks before the legislature resumes sitting.

NDP provincial secretary John Tzupa acknowledged the seats will be difficult for the Opposition to win, even coming off its recent urban byelection victories, but said even modest gains will send a message about the Sask. Party’s leadership.

“If we can see improvements in these areas, then to us that’s a huge step forward and a step in the right direction. It’s one step at a time as we try to build our organization across the province, as we work toward government in 2020,” Tzupa said.

Ryan Meili’s victory in Saskatoon Meewasin and Vicki Mowat’s triumph in Saskatoon Fairview have come to be seen as expressions of dissatisfaction with the province’s fiscal situation and, in the latter case, the government’s deeply unpopular 2017-18 budget.

At the same time, both seats were decided by narrow margins in the 2016 general election.

It is a different story altogether outside Saskatoon and Regina, where the NDP has struggled and Sask. Party candidates have won huge victories in recent years.

Sask. Party executive director Patrick Bundrock said while his party is taking nothing for granted, he does not expect these byelections to unfold into referendums on the government, or the decisions it made over the last 12 months.

“I think these byelections are viewed very differently by voters … I think you’re going to see a very good result and an endorsement of Premier Moe’s path forward,” Bundrock said, adding that Moe has already fulfilled two major leadership campaign promises.

Elections Saskatchewan reported Monday that 665 people cast ballots in Kindersley, 727 in Melfort and 946 in Swift Current over three of five scheduled advance voting days.

During the 2016 general election, the respective totals were 964, 945 and 856.

Kevin Phillips was first elected as the MLA for Melfort in 2011. He was re-elected in the 2016 general election with 77 per cent of the vote. The seat became vacant in mid-November, when Phillips died unexpectedly.

The Kindersley seat was occupied by Sask. Party founding member Bill Boyd for most of the last three decades. Boyd won 68 per cent of the vote in the last general election, only to resign this summer amid a conflict of interest scandal.

Brad Wall was elected as the MLA for Swift Current in 1999, and was re-elected four times — most recently in 2016 with 82 per cent of the vote — before resigning both the seat and the premiership at the end of January.

While Wall is seen by some as inseparable from the party he led for a decade, Bundrock said the Sask. Party “brand” is strong in rural areas, especially Swift Current, and Moe has campaigned in all three constituencies since taking office.