MOE MUST FORGE OWN PATH
Wall’s shadow looms over premier
If part of Wall’s intention on leaving was to remove some of the baggage he had piled up over his decade in power, it appears to be working.
While Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has embraced some of his predecessor’s political hobbyhorses, he is also carving out his own niche in subtle ways and presiding over a changed caucus.
The long shadow of former premier Brad Wall is still cast over Moe, but it does not seem to be a major concern for the governing Saskatchewan Party.
Much of Moe’s early tenure has focused on a few issues: Like Wall, he continues to be an adamant opponent of a federally-imposed carbon tax; and (also like Wall), he continues to pick fights with political opponents — Alberta and B.C.’s NDP governments and the federal Liberals, in particular — at every conceivable opportunity.
It has all made for a relatively blasé five months in power for Moe, which is perhaps exactly what the Sask. Party needed after the tenuous final days of Wall’s tenure.
Recall Wall’s final budget caused the most significant public backlash in recent memory, reflected in polling, and divisions within caucus.
If part of Wall’s intention on leaving was to remove some of the baggage he had piled up over his decade in power, it appears to be working.
Polling suggests the Sask. Party has rebounded; Moe has maintained Wall-like popularity and, although protesters still frequent the Legislative Building, there was hardly a peep about the new leader’s first budget when it came out in April (at least compared to last year).
Moe rode into office on the mantra of teamwork. Backed by strong caucus support in his bid to replace Wall, the new premier has been largely successful in uniting caucus after a naturally divisive leadership campaign.
Although Moe has had early challenges — like dealing with the tragic Humboldt Broncos bus crash and responding after the Gerald Stanley verdict — he has not had to take a definitive stance on a divisive caucus issue yet. The teamwork approach has not yet been tested by a major issue or the NDP (which is also adjusting to a new leader, Ryan Meili, whose attempts at bringing a nicer, kidglove approach to political discourse left him coming off as meek, although he has taken stronger positions on government waste and equalization more recently).
The very nature of cabinet-table teamwork is at least somewhat counter-intuitive, as it is essentially a group of ministers competing against one another for a finite amount of dollars and attention to issues.
Under Moe, it no longer feels as is decisions are made by political insiders before they come to cabinet, sources say. That was an increasingly frequent complaint during Wall’s final days.
Still, rumours have floated deputy premier and Education Minister Gord Wyant is unhappy with his role. As an urban-based lawyer and former card carrying Liberal, Wyant seemed an odd fit but perfect choice as the rural, conservative Moe’s right-hand man. Rumours of discontent were accentuated by talk Attorney General Don Morgan wanted to remain deputy premier, a role he held under Wall.
There were whispers of Wyant feeling he was not being heard at the cabinet table, but political insiders and sources close to Wyant discount those. Rather, they suggest Wyant is facing a significant challenge in the adjustment to his new role.
Sources say he supports returning to a model where the province fully funds the teacher’s new contract, which is currently being negotiated through binding arbitration after talks hit an impasse.
Convincing his penny-pinching, fiscally-conservative caucus colleagues to do so could be a challenge, more so given he already has a reputation of wanting to spend his way out of problems.
And as the deputy premier, he is occasionally tasked with acting as a “heavy” within government — a difficult task for the kind, soft-spoken Wyant, a man more inclined to building bridges than setting them on fire.
Based largely on previous friendships, Health Minister Jim Reiter and Social Service’s Minister Paul Merriman are close to the premier.
And because of his strong connections to conservatives across the country and familiarity with the legislative process, Minister of Trade, Export Development, Immigration and Career Training Jeremy Harrison also has Moe’s ear.
They are considered Moe’s “kitchen cabinet” and arguably demonstrate how Saskatchewan’s political landscape took a small tick to the right the moment Moe became premier: all three are considered to be members of the bigtent Saskatchewan Party ’s conservative contingent.
Any premier will be closer to some colleagues than others, but that doesn’t discount the challenge of not alienating other caucus members, particularly those who may not have had any real relationship with Moe prior to his leadership victory.
Although the pragmatic Reg Downs and Ken Krawetz, two longtime Wall disciples, remain on Moe’s staff, the tick to the right is also evident in Moe hiring Jason Wall, who has seemingly supported the far right-wing media outlet The Rebel and U.S. President Donald Trump on Twitter, as a special adviser.
While most members of Wall’s inner circle — chief of staff Joe Donlevy and communications director Kathy Young — have moved on, it is significant that Moe recently scrapped plans to move Downs into a new role further away from his office.
Downs is widely-regarded as one of the best political strategists in Western Canada, and Moe’s decision to keep him close suggests he recognizes the need for top-quality advice, even if it comes from one of Wall’s closest allies.
It is worth noting some sources discount any one particular person or group of people having the ear of Moe more than others, but how much influence certain people carry will become more apparent in coming months.
Harrison is chairing the caucus committee on what the fall legisla- tive agenda will look like. Much of that work, and what the Sask. Party government will do come October, will be fleshed out at an upcoming caucus retreat, taking place later this month.
What comes out of that work will be significant in defining who exactly Premier Scott Moe is as he continues to climb out of Wall’s shadow.
With an election on the horizon — it’s currently slated for November 2020 — Moe will need to define exactly who he is and what his priorities are.
If that doesn’t happen soon, he risks being defined by others (like the Opposition NDP) or remaining an unknown quantity, which would make his chances of appealing to swing voters, particularly urban women who may be more inclined to choose an urban doctor (like Meili), all the more difficult.
Already there are hints as to where Moe’s priorities will lie come October. In part because it plays well in polling, he will continue to oppose the federal carbon tax and pick fights with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government.
But it is expected he will also have a heavy legislative agenda, arguably marking his first real opportunity to put a stamp on Saskatchewan. (Many of the laws that were passed during Moe’s first session were leftovers from the Wall days).
Rural crime, which is polling as a priority for voters at levels before unseen, will likely be a major Sask. Party issue.
There will be a close look at the role of highway patrol officers and other recommendations that came out of a report on rural crime done earlier this year.
Mental health is a noted commitment of Moe and Reiter. It too is expected to be a high priority, particularly in northern Saskatchewan; No politician wants to answer any questions about high suicide rates and lack of provincial funding.
There is also a continued shift within Social Services, and it is believed Merriman is considering ways to more effectively spend dollars to escape the trend of spending more money on social benefits with only small tangible results.
Like any legislative session, there are sure to be surprises too.