Trudeau’s carbon tax rebates won’t sell in Sask.

Another federal poll came out this week with the rather unremarkable news that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are ahead everywhere except the Prairies.

What was most interesting is the poll came out just as the federal Liberal government is launching its pushback against anti-carbon-pricing provinces that will promote the benefits of federal carbon pricing rebates going directly to Canadian households.

It is no stretch to say this pushback is aimed almost exclusively at Ontario, where new Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford has vowed to join Saskatchewan’s legal challenge on carbon tax.

It’s even less of a stretch to say putting money directly into people’s pockets could work for the Liberals in voterich Ontario.

However, direct carbon rebates to households won’t work here in Saskatchewan

... although it seems unlikely the Liberals much care.

The Liberals simply don’t care about whatever the Saskatchewan Party government concerns are about a carbon tax hurting industry and costing us jobs. Similarly, the Sask. Party government has never been interested in a meaningful conversation about a carbon tax as a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or maybe even help households.

And at the end of the day, both the federal Liberals and provincial Sask. Party are good with this. Both know Liberals won’t gain federal seats on the Prairies. Both likely realize a carbon tax — with or without direct rebates to households from Ottawa — is always going to be politically helpful to Premier Scott Moe.

The carbon tax debate reignited in a big way this week when National Post columnist John Ivison broke the intriguing news that a study to be released next week by Canadians for Clean Prosperity — a group advocating carbon pricing and led by former prime minister Stephen Harper’s ex-policy director Mark Cameron — will demonstrate that Canadian households may get more back from the carbon tax than it will cost them.

It’s been long feared that $20 a tonne carbon pricing (moving to $50 a tonne by 2022) will simply drive up gas prices, and thus other costs like food transported to supermarkets. Further troubling in Saskatchewan is the higher cost of electricity because we burn dirty coal.

It sounds pretty specious that any government levy or tax would ever result in taxpayers getting more money back, but Ivison’s column further quoted environmental economist Dave Sawyer of Enviro economics suggesting just that very scenario is possible for most households.

That $20 a tonne carbon tax means roughly 4.5 cents more per litre of gas, translating into $165 more a year for an Ontario household earning $60,000 to $80,000 a year, Sawyer told Ivison. In Alberta and Saskatchewan — which get electricity from coal — the annual household carbon tax would be $249 and $259, respectively. When the carbon tax moves to $50 a tonne in 2022, it would “$332 in Ontario, $486 in Alberta and $511 in Saskatchewan. “

But Sawyer noted in the column that the direct federal rebate to households in Ontario would start at $350 in 2019 and increase to $836 in 2022. In Alberta, it would be $868 in 2019, increasing to $1,890 in 2020, and here in Saskatchewan it would be $1075 in 2019, increasing to $2,394 in 2022.

All in all, Ivison’s column estimated a net five-year benefit of $1,231 in Alberta and $1,711 in Saskatchewan. It’s a tidy sum — enough for a nice couples trip to Hawaii.

But the easy question for the Sask. Party to pose is:

Will you have a job when you get home? Those supporting carbon pricing argue the Sask. Party’s job-loss fearmongering is alarmist rhetoric, but we have all seen the ups and downs of oil.

Talk about oil rigs moving to the U.S. because they prefer President Donald Trump’s economic climate does resonate. The Sask. Party will also argue these federal household rebates will be picked from the pockets of farmers and miners.

And all of us stuck with higher Saskpower bills may not be all that confident that cheque from Trudeau will ever come.

There again, it’s doubtful Trudeau and the Liberals are all that worried if Saskatchewan households don’t buy into his rebates.