WHICH TEAMS FLIP SCRIPT AFTER U.S. THANKSGIVING?
A look at five teams who could drop from playoff picture, and five who could ascend
When asked why the Edmonton Oilers fired Todd Mclellan earlier this week, GM Peter Chiarelli referenced the fact that U.S. Thanksgiving was coming up and the team was still not in a playoff spot.
For years, the holiday has been a crystal ball into the future. If you’re in a playoff spot by the third week of November, chances are you will remain that way when the season ends.
Then again, it’s not a hard-and-fast rule. Last year, five teams ended up falling out of a playoff spot after Thanksgiving.
Who knows, this year there could be five more switching places.
With the holiday behind us, here are five teams that could be on the rise and five in danger of crashing hard:
NEW YORK RANGERS
How did they get here: This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Rangers. Instead, they are right near the top of the Metropolitan Division. Henrik Lundqvist (.919 save percentage) deserves a lot of the credit, but it’s been veterans such as Chris Kreider (12 goals) and Mika Zibanejad (19 points) acting as effective stopgaps until the youngsters are ready to take over. Why they might be falling down:
The Rangers have benefited from playing in a weak division where the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are struggling and the New Jersey Devils don’t look like the same team that made the playoffs last season. If any of those three teams wakes up, New York will be in trouble.
BUFFALO SABRES
How they got here: After finishing with the worst record last season, the Sabres are 15-6-2 following a win streak that extended to eight games Friday. Much of their success has come from their top line. Jack Eichel leads the team with 26 points, while Jeff Skinner is in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 17 goals. Why they might be falling down:
Skinner has a 22.1 shooting percentage, which is double his career average. If he stops scoring, the Sabres’ lack of secondary offence could haunt them. As well, there’s question marks about whether Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark can keep up a combined .912 save percentage for the entire year.
MONTREAL CANADIENS
How they got here: Give it up for Marc Bergevin. The Canadiens GM has been criticized for past trades, but the deals to bring Max Domi (11 goals and 26 points) and Tomas Tatar (nine goals and 18 points) to Montreal have
worked out better than anyone could have imagined. The fact that Carey Price isn’t playing his best hockey — or that Shea Weber hasn’t even played a game — means we haven’t even seen the best yet out of this team. Why they might be falling down:
While it’s nice that Montreal is winning despite Price’s .895 save percentage, Price will ultimately have to be his old self if the Canadiens hope to make the playoffs. After all, it’s not like the team has a Plan B to turn to.
BOSTON BRUINS
How they got here: The Bruins’ top line has once again been their biggest weapon. David Pastrnak entered Friday’s game with 17 goals, while Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand entered Friday with a combined 15 goals and 47 points. And with Tuukka Rask still finding his game, Jaroslav Halak has stepped in and posted a .935 save percentage. Why they might be falling down:
Injuries will test the Bruins in the coming weeks. Bergeron, Zdeno Chara and Charlie MCA-voy are just some of the names out of the lineup. That’s three of their top five players. If Rask doesn’t step up and save the day, Boston could easily slip out of contention.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
How they got here: Let’s face it, the Pacific Division is a joke. The third-place Ducks would have the sixth-best record — and be out of the playoffs — if they were in the Atlantic Division. That being said, Anaheim is where it is today because of John Gibson (.928 save percentage), who should win the Vezina as well as the Hart Trophy if this keeps up. Why they might be falling down:
Anaheim’s leading scorer, Ryan Getzlaf, has six goals and 17 points. As of Friday morning, 90 players in the NHL had more goals. That’s not going to cut it. Neither is the fact that the Ducks are minus-15 in goal differential.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
How they got here: This one is puzzling for the simple fact that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel had a combined 27 goals and 75 points before Friday night’s game against Boston. And unlike other teams that align their stars on one line, Crosby, Malkin and Kessel are not even playing together, providing balanced scoring throughout the lineup. In other words, look to Matt Murray’s .877 save percentage as the main culprit. Why they might be moving up:
Never bet against Crosby, especially when Malkin and Kessel are surrounding him. Obviously, the Penguins need Murray, who is now out weeks with a lowerbody injury, to play better once he returns. Until then, it’s up to Casey Desmith (.924 save percentage) to get Pittsburgh back in contention.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
How they got here: It’s been a familiar problem in Philadelphia, where goaltending has been the
story of the year for all the wrong reasons. The team, which has the second-worst goals-against average in the league, has already used four goalies. Why they might be moving up:
The Flyers just got back James van Riemsdyk, who scored a goal and two assists in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. And while goaltending has failed them for most of the year, Brian Elliott has allowed two or fewer goals in each of his last seven starts. He’ll need to keep it up if the Flyers hope to make the seemingly impossible climb up the standings.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
How they got here: No one really expected anything out of the Canucks, so the fact that the team is out of a playoff spot is not surprising. Still, Vancouver could easily have been higher in the standings if Jacob Markstrom (.896 save percentage) stopped just a few more pucks. Why they might be moving up:
Whenever you’re playing in the Pacific Division, you always have a chance. Bo Horvat entered Friday night’s game against the San Jose Sharks with 11 goals and 21 points, while rookie Elias Pettersson had 12 goals and 19 points. Based on their ages, chances are the best is still yet to come. But the one guy to keep an eye on is Brock Boeser, who has scored only four goals and has been limited by injury. He could be due for a major breakout.
EDMONTON OILERS
How they got here: After starting the season on an 8-4-1 run, the Oilers lost six of their next seven games, which led to the team replacing coach Todd Mclellan with Ken Hitchcock. The main problems are goaltending (Cam Talbot has a .888 save percentage) and a lack of offence from anyone not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Why they might be moving up:
Hitchcock, who won in his Oilers head-coaching debut, could be the change that Edmonton needed. He might not be able to unlock Milan Lucic’s scoring potential, but he does have a knack for getting teams to play better defensively. Besides that, never count out a team that has Mcdavid putting up 100-plus points a season.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
How they got here: From Stanley Cup finalist to back of the pack. Even Cinderella didn’t fall from grace this hard. Losing Nate Schmidt for the first two months definitely hurt, but a lack of offence has been the bigger issue. William Karlsson (five goals in 23 games ahead of Friday’s game against Calgary) is well off his 43-goal pace from last year, while Max Pacioretty had contributed just eight points since being added from Montreal. Why they might be moving up:
Schmidt is back and Pacioretty, who had four goals in the three games prior to Friday, is finally finding the back of the net. With Erik Haula and Paul Stastny expected back from injury, there is still hope Vegas will have its storybook ending once again.