BATTLEFORDS– LLOYDMINSTER RIDING PROFILES THE NORTH
Alex Macpherson provides readers with snapshots of federal election races in the northern half of Saskatchewan. On Oct. 19, look for the southern ridings.
NDP: Marcella Pedersen, farmer, activist
Conservative: Rosemarie Falk, social worker
Liberal: Larry Ingram, small business owner
Green: David Kim Cragg, chaplain
People’s Party: Jason Macinnis, tax professional Characteristics: Sprawling across west-central Saskatchewan, the predominantly rural and agricultural Battlefords–lloydminster encompasses the two cities whose name it bears, as well as Kindersley and dozens of smaller communities. The constituency stretches from just south of Highway 7 to just north of St. Walburg; its western edge is defined by the Saskatchewan-alberta border while its jagged eastern edge abuts Carlton Trail–eagle Creek, which itself surrounds most of Saskatoon.
Size: 39,491 km2
Population:
73,506
Turnout in 2015:
66.5%
Aboriginal population:
24%
Visible minority population:
7%
Seniors population:
14%
Population with university degree:
8%
Unemployment rate:
9.7%
Median individual income:
$37,180
What to watch: Battle fords lloyd minster has had two Members of Parliament since it was created in 1996. Gerry
Ritz was elected to represent the Reform Party in the 1997 general election, and hung onto the riding until he announced his retirement two years ago. Ritz, who served as agriculture minister under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, was succeeded by Conservative Rosemarie Falk, a former social worker who won a byelection in 2017 with almost 70 per cent of the vote.
While byelections are not reliable indicators of general election results, Falk’s margin of victory surpassed the 20,547 votes, or 61 per cent, Ritz secured in the 2015 election, his last. In that vote, the NDP and Liberal candidates finished with 5,930 and 5,550 votes respectively.
Virtually all the polls that voted against Ritz were on First Nations, of which there are several in the riding. Pockets of support for other candidates tended to be small and isolated. In at least two polls — one on Red Pheasant First Nation and the other at Poundmaker Cree Nation — Ritz received just one vote.
Those results suggest Battlefords–lloydminster is among the safest Conservative seats in the province. While that represented a significant jump for the Liberals, who received fewer than 1,000 votes in 2011, it remains to be seen whether a left-leaning party can make inroads in a conservative stronghold.
DESNETHÉ–MISSINIPPI– CHURCHILL RIVER
NDP: Georgina Jolibois, politician
Conservative: Gary Vidal, accountant, politician
Liberal: Tammy Cook-searson, politician
Green: Sarah Kraynick, entrepreneur
PPC: Jerome Perreault
Characteristics: Geographically by far the largest riding in the province, and among the largest in Canada, Desnethé-missinippi-churchill River covers the northern half of the province, from just north of Prince Albert to the Northwest Territories border. Sparsely populated, economically disadvantaged and predominantly Indigenous, Desnethé-missinippi-churchill River is unique in the province in that local and regional allegiances are thought to be as important as political affiliation when it comes to electing an MP. It’s a riding where campaigning is hard, and getting out the vote is vital.
Size: 304,710 km2
Population:
70,891
Turnout in 2015:
64.7%
Aboriginal population:
71%
Visible minority population:
1%
Seniors population:
10%
Population with university degree:
6%
Unemployment rate:
18.6%
Median individual income:
$23,281
What to watch: Desnethé-missinippi-churchill River features one of the strongest slates of major-party candidates in the province: Three well-known leaders, all of whom have extensive political experience in the riding. Georgina Jolibois, the NDP incumbent, is a former mayor of La Loche, while Conservative challenger Gary Vidal has spent the last eight years as mayor of Meadow Lake. Liberal candidate Tammy Cook-searson, seen by many as a star candidate for the party in the province, is a former chief of the Lac La Ronge Indian Band.
The riding has been the scene of many close races in the past. Jolibois won in 2015 by 82 votes, and the riding was decided by just 67 ballots in the 2006 federal election. In other years, however, the final results have been much starker. In both recent cases where the results were close, one major party was turfed out of government and another one installed. Both of those votes also led to voters in the riding turning out in significantly higher numbers than in other elections.
That is thought to demonstrate, at least in part, that community allegiances are as important as party affiliation in some corners of the riding. In 2015, for example, communities in the southern part of the riding went solidly Conservative while Indigenous communities further north tended to eschew the Conservatives in favour of either the Liberal or the NDP candidate. That suggests the result next month will be largely dependent on turnout — who shows up and who stays home. Although polling in the riding is difficult given its geography, 338Canada’s model has called it a likely win for Vidal.
CARLTON TRAIL– EAGLE CREEK
NDP: Jasmine Calix, police crime-free housing coordinator
Conservative: Kelly Block, politician
Liberal: Rebecca Malo, student
Green: Dean Gibson, musician
People’s Party: Cody Payant Characteristics: Created in 2012, Carlton Trail-eagle Creek encompasses the rural portions of the three now-defunct urban-rural Saskatoon ridings. Shaped like three-quarters of a circle, the riding swings from the South Saskatchewan River around past Rosetown to the west, north of Marcelin to the north and then down past Lake Lenore to Highway 5, its southern border on the east side. The remaining quarter of a circle is made up of the rural portion of Saskatoon– Grasswood and Moose Jaw-lake Centre-lanigan.
Size: 28,381 km2
Population:
80,662
Turnout in 2015:
71.8%
Aboriginal population:
9%
Visible minority population:
3%
Seniors population:
15%
Population with university degree:
10%
Unemployment rate:
5.9%
Median individual income:
$39,870
What to watch: Like the three Saskatoon ridings, Carlton Trail– Eagle Creek is just a few years old. It was first contested in the 2015 election, which resulted in Kelly Block — who was first elected in 2008, as the MP for Saskatoon–rosetown–biggar — receiving more than 26,000 votes. Her nearest rival, the NDP’S Glenn Wright, received less than a third of that total, 7,499 votes. Liberal Alexander Slusar finished in third place with 5,774 votes.
Elections Canada results show that Block lost in exactly two of the almost-200 polls conducted during the election — one at Beardy’s and Okemasis Cree Nation and the other in Duck Lake. That suggests support for the Conservatives is both strong and widespread in the riding. Like its neighbour to the west, Battlefords–lloydminster is among the safest Conservative seats in a province full of safe Conservative seats.
Characteristics: The only federal electoral district that has been represented by two prime ministers — William Lyon Mackenzie King held the seat between 1926 and 1945, and John G. Diefenbaker hung onto it from 1953 through 1979 — Prince Albert includes the province’s third-largest city and encompasses a large rural area to the east, including Zenon Park and Carrot River.
It is bordered to the south by Carlton Trail-eagle Creek and Yorkton-melville; its northern border is the southern boundary of Desnethé-missinippi-churchill River.
Size: 18,916 km2
Population:
79,625
Turnout in 2015:
68.5%
Aboriginal population:
13%
Visible minority population:
5%
Seniors population:
18%
Population with university degree:
10%
Unemployment rate:
8.7%
Median individual income:
$35,222
What to watch: Prince Albert has a long and storied electoral history. Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives of every stripe have held the seat. Over the last 30 years, however, the riding has been held exclusively by conservatives, most recently by incumbent Randy Hoback, who was first elected in 2008 with 57 per cent of the vote.
While Hoback increased his margin of victory in 2011, it fell to 49 per cent four years ago when he faced a challenge from New Democrat Lon Borgerson, who earned 28 per cent of the vote. As is the case in other urban-rural ridings, support for the Conservatives was largely broad, apart from on First Nations in the constituency. The NDP did better in the city than in the surrounding rural areas.
Given the prevailing sentiment in Western Canada and the fact 338Canada’s electoral projection has deemed it a safe seat for the Conservatives, Hoback is clearly the front-runner. For another candidate to beat him, he or she will likely have to not only consolidate the non-conservative vote but also dramatically boost turnout among young — and especially young Indigenous — people less likely to vote for a right-of-centre party.
SASKATOON–GRASSWOOD
NDP: Erika Ritchie, engineer
Conservative: Kevin Waugh, former sports broadcaster
Liberal: Tracy Muggli, social worker
Green: Neil Sinclair, farmer
People’s Party: Mark Friesen, retired correctional officer, entrepreneur Characteristics: The largest and most rural of the three Saskatoon constituencies, Saskatoon-grasswood extends south of Eighth Street East and College Drive into the Rural Municipality of Corman Park. Its southern and eastern borders are the same as those of the RM; it is bounded on the west by the South Saskatchewan River.
Size: 335.9 km2
Population:
82,946
Turnout in 2015:
78%
Aboriginal population:
8%
Visible minority population:
18%
Seniors population:
17%
Population with university degree:
21%
Unemployment rate:
6%
Median individual income:
$42,405
What to watch: Another riding the pollsters have deemed safe for the Conservatives, Saskatoon-grasswood has been represented since 2015 by Kevin Waugh, a familiar face to any longtime CTV Saskatoon viewers. In the last election, Waugh, who was then running his first campaign, won by more than 5,000 votes, ahead of the NDP’S Scott Bell and Liberal Tracy Muggli.
Bell has passed the left-ofcentre party’s torch to engineer Erika Ritchie, while Muggli — a well-known face in local Liberal circles — is back for a second crack at the seat. As in Saskatoon–university, which is very similar demographically, their chances appear to hinge on one party’s voters decamping for the other party in a significant way. Otherwise, another split vote could carry Waugh to his second term in Ottawa.
That will likely depend on how the comparatively well-off and well-educated pool of potential voters perceive the big issues of this campaign — the economy, the environment and the space between them. It’s a fight Waugh hopes to win on the doorsteps. Expect his rivals to be doing the same in the days to come.
SASKATOON-UNIVERSITY
NDP: Claire Card,
U of S veterinary professor
Conservative: Corey Tochor, entrepreneur, politician
Liberal: Susan Hayton, physician
Green: Jan Norris, artist and art teacher
People’s Party: Guto Penteado, entrepreneur
Christian Heritage: Jeff Willerton, entrepreneur
Characteristics: Created in 2012, Saskatoon–university covers much of northeast Saskatoon, with Eighth Street East, Mckercher Drive and College Drive acting as its southern border. The urban riding also encompasses a few neighbourhoods west of the river, including North Park, River Heights, Lawson Heights and Silverwood Heights.
Size: 68.9 km2
Population:
82,663
Turnout in 2015:
77%
Aboriginal population:
8%
Visible minority population:
18%
Seniors population:
13%
Population with university degree:
27%
Unemployment rate:
6.2%
Median individual income:
$42,520
What to watch: Saskatoon-university may be a new riding, but the city’s northeast has long been a bastion of support for the Conservatives. Brad Trost, who lost the nomination race to Corey Tochor and won’t be seeking re-election, has represented the riding and its urban-rural predecessor since 2004. After winning a tight three-way race that year, Trost continued to gather support. In both 2011 and 2015, he received more than 50 per cent of the vote.
Tochor is something of an unknown quantity in the riding — as an MLA, he represented Saskatoon Eastview, in the city’s south — but pollsters have already deemed the seat a safe one for the Conservatives. His main challenger is likely to be Card, who finished around 4,000 votes behind Trost in 2015. That year, the Liberals received more than 11,000 votes in the riding. Assuming Conservative support is steady, a dramatic swing between the two left-of-centre parties could bump someone ahead of Tochor.
Given the riding ’s affluence and comparatively high level of education, it is likely that broad economic issues will play a major role in every candidate’s campaign. Look for Tochor trying to capitalize on anti-liberal sentiment and split the left-of-centre vote, while his opponents pitch plans aimed at strengthening the economy and protecting the environment.
SASKATOON WEST
NDP: Sheri Benson, former United Way CEO
Conservative: Brad Redekopp, home builder
Liberal: Shah Rukh
Green: Shawn Setyo,
Green Party of Saskatchewan leader
People’s Party: Isaac Hayes Characteristics: Redrawn in 2012 as part of a redistribution aimed at creating separate urban and rural ridings, Saskatoon West encompasses virtually all areas of the city west of the South Saskatchewan River. Only a few neighbourhoods in the city’s north end are cut off — they are part of Saskatoon-university.
Size: 91.4 km2
Population:
83,711
Turnout in 2015:
66%
Aboriginal population:
18%
Visible minority population:
22%
Seniors population:
20%
Population with university degree:
11%
Unemployment rate:
14%
Median individual income:
$35,387
What to watch: As it exists today, Saskatoon West has only been contested in one previous election, which the NDP’S Sheri Benson won with 14,921 votes. She was followed in second place by Conservative Randy Donauer, who received 12,401 votes. Liberal Lisa Abbott came third with 9,234 votes. None of the other candidates received more than 700.
This year, the Liberals were slow to nominate a candidate, leading one expert to describe Shah Rukh’s chances as a “faint hope.” That suggests many votes that went to the Liberals in 2015 are up for grabs this time around. Benson is banking on her constituency work over the last four years earning her another term in Ottawa, while Redekopp is hoping anti-liberal sentiment in the West will help him win the seat.
While some pollsters see the race leaning toward the Conservatives, the economic and cultural diversity in the riding suggests social issues could also play a pivotal role — Saskatoon West is the least wealthy riding in the city, with a median household income almost $20,000 below those of the other two ridings. This is a riding where getting out the vote is critical, and both front-runners have been at it for months already.