LEAFS SHOULD BE EMBARRASSED BY THEIR EARLY UNDERACHIEVEMENT
This is not the time to fire coach Mike Babcock but if something doesn’t change — and soon — with the rather moribund Toronto Maple Leafs, the time may be rapidly approaching.
Thirteen games into this season, the Maple Leafs are a convoluted mess. There is no nice way of sugar-coating this: They are a team lacking in identity, a club playing far below its capabilities, deficient in structure, not competitive enough to succeed. The coach should be at wit’s end right about now, having never faced a challenge of this magnitude in his decorated career.
The players, across the board, should be embarrassed, by the little they’ve accomplished on the ice and the manner in which they have played in the majority of their games to date. By my count, they’ve played 13 times, four games of reasonable quality. If you stretch this into last year’s playoffs against Boston — where, for the most part, they did play reasonably well — and into the last regular season, the Leafs have won 34 of their past 70 games.
That is no small sample size, even with a roster significantly changed from a year ago. This is who they are right now. And what makes this so exasperating is, this isn’t who they should be: Playing at 90 point pace over a 70-game stretch.
Not good enough to make the playoffs, let alone win a playoff round, let alone contend.
In assessing teams years ago, Hockey Hall-of-famer Cliff Fletcher had a basic arm’slength approach to evaluating his situation. He would take his roster and divide his players into three categories: Those who were playing to expectations, those who were playing beyond expectations and those who were playing below.
And then he’d have a sense of what needed to change and why.
My evaluation of the current Leafs: Those playing above expectations: Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot and Dmytro Timashov. And that’s it. Unless you want to stick Justin Holl in there as well.
Those playing to expectations: Frederik Andersen, Jake Muzzin, Kasperi Kapanen (after getting off the top line), Trevor Moore and those with little expectation to begin with: Frederik Gauthier, Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel.
The below-expectation players are the most concerning here: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson, Cody Ceci and then the lesser-lights Jason Spezza, Nic Petan and Martin Marincin.
No rating at this time, obviously, for John Tavares, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott.
Using the Fletcher method, like most teams, the Leafs will only go as far as the stars take them.
If Matthews doesn’t score, he isn’t making his presence felt enough in other ways. He isn’t creating much offence — he has just three assists.
He isn’t hard enough on the puck in the offensive zone, and now, as witnessed on Saturday night in Montreal, he’s pressing the way a young man with a huge contract presses when things don’t go his way.
On too many nights, a man that big and that strong, that talented, has been invisible. That’s a problem for the Leafs.
Marner’s play has been problematic as well. In the seven games the Leafs have lost, he does not have a goal in any of them, and has just four assists. He’s been a minus-player in every one of those defeats. He may be on pace for another 94-point season, but his play hasn’t been as commanding and too often he is forcing turnovers at both blue lines, the kind of plays that get teams beaten.
It’s different with Rielly, who is clearly nursing some kind of injury but remaining in the lineup. He’s scoring at an impressive rate but not playing in the defensive zone the way he is capable.
For the Leafs to succeed, they need to be led by a healthy Tavares, by Matthews, by Marner, by Rielly. If all of them aren’t playing the way they are capable, the Leafs aren’t going to survive by living off Kerfoot and Mykheyev.
And for as sharp as Nylander can look on occasion, he does that some nights, his play has been spotty. He has three goals in 13 games and his penchant for missing the net on good scoring opportunities has become his calling card. He’s on pace for 19 goals and 50 points. For a player of Nylander’s talent level, playing entirely with Matthews, those are very low numbers.
The players aren’t performing to either hockey expectations or contract expectations.
And the coaching staff, which can only control certain aspects of the game, has come under question as well. What can a coach do? He can influence or change defensive zone coverages. He can influence gap control and taking away time and space. He can also determine who plays, where they play and how much they play. The staff itself can influence special teams.
Babcock’s Leafs are second in the NHL in goal-scoring, third-last in goals against. They are second in 5-on-5 scoring, and second-last in 5-on-5 goals against. That’s no way to succeed.
The Leafs have allowed 37 even-strength goals against: Boston and Tampa, combined, have allowed 33.
The current struggle is new for GM Kyle Dubas in the NHL. He has yet to face a real crisis in his short time as general manager. This may be his first.
This is even new as an executive for president Brendan Shanahan, who hasn’t had to deal with high expectations coming apart at the seams. And the challenge is enormous for Babcock, who is running out of time as Leafs coach.
Unless this team begins to change drastically. And fast.