Support for Sask. separation remains very low

Survey finds that election results barely move leave-canada needle

Support for Saskatchewan leaving Canada and forming an independent country remains overwhelmingly low, according to a recent survey conducted by a team at the University of Saskatchewan.

In a telephone survey of 402 adults conducted by the University of Saskatchewan’s Social Sciences Research Laboratories (SSRL) earlier this month, just 37 — or 9.3 per cent — responded in favour of Saskatchewan leaving Confederation and forming an independent country. Just under 85 per cent of respondents, or 341 people, said Saskatchewan should not separate. The remaining 24 people either refused to answer or said they didn’t know if Saskatchewan should separate.

Despite the issue generating national attention during and following the recent federal election campaign, and movements such as Wexit generating at least moderate attention, the recent survey results are similar to a September survey in which the same question was posed.

In September, 35 respondents (or 8.7 per cent) said Saskatchewan should separate and form an independent country, while 346 people (86.4 per cent) said Saskatchewan should remain in the Confederation. Of the remaining 19 people surveyed in September, 18 said they didn’t know and one refused to answer the question.

The October 2019 federal election, which occurred between the Omnibus surveys taken in September and December, did not seem to have generated any appreciable shift in pro-separation sentiment.

“When compared to the results from the September 2019 Omnibus survey, comparable percentages of respondents that indicated that Saskatchewan should separate from Canada and form an independent country were found,” the SSRL said in a statement.

The data was collected by SSRL researchers calling a representative sample of Saskatchewan residents and asking for their views on hot-button topics in the province.

The results are published by Postmedia News and CBC. The survey has a margin of error of 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The researchers asked people in September who they intended to vote for in the October election. Of the 400 people surveyed, 166 (41.4 per cent) expressed their intention to vote Conservative. The 87 people (21.9 per cent) who didn’t yet know who they were voting for formed the second-largest group of respondents, New Democrats had 44 supporters (10.9 per cent), 20 people said they planned to vote Liberal (4.9 per cent), 32 people (8.9 per cent) said they’d be voting Green, and the People’s Party of Canada had six supporters (1.6 per cent). Of those remaining, 37 people (9.2 per cent) refused to answer the question and eight (two per cent) said they didn’t intend to vote.

In the December survey, researchers asked people which party they had voted for.

The number of declared non-voters was also higher in the December survey group.

While just over 40 per cent of respondents indicated in September that they planned to vote Conservative, only 31.6 per cent of respondents (or 127) said they voted Conservative. The Green party appeared to have received far less support than the pre-election poll indicated, with seven people (1.7 per cent) saying they’d voted Green. Meanwhile, the New Democrats saw their numbers nearly double between polls, with 81 people (20 per cent) saying they’d voted NDP as compared to the 10.9 per cent who in September reported their intention to do so.

The SSRL noted significantly more people in the December sample refused to say who they voted for, with 82 of the 402 people polled (20.3 per cent) declining to answer. The number of declared non-voters was also higher in the December survey group, with 67 people (16.7 per cent) saying they did not cast a ballot.

In the 2019 federal election, the Conservative party swept all 14 ridings in the province, only three of which were even remotely competitive on election night.

According to the SSRL, when answers regarding Saskatchewan separating from Canada in the December poll were compared with answers regarding who respondents had voted for, those who said they voted Conservative, refused to answer the question, or said they didn’t know who they had voted for were “significantly more likely to indicate that Saskatchewan should separate from Canada and form an independent country.”