Alberta vs. Ontario
Melanee Thomas, a University of Calgary political science professor, said there’s a considerable amount of appeal in the idea of ideological purity, and that moving towards the mushy middle is a terrible way to win elections — unless you’re in Canada.
“Actually having that clarity of position is useful, and certainly makes things more interesting to talk about, but in terms of actually winning federal elections in Canada, you’ve got to take this into account, the contextual history with Quebec,” Thomas said.
O’toole and Kenney have sounded similar at times in how they channel western anger. O’toole, who placed third in the last party leadership race, has emphasized the need to “push back and fight” against what he calls “foreign-funded sources of influence” working to shut down the western resource economy and hurt workers.
The video to launch his leadership campaign — which he began in Calgary — features a shot of Leonardo Dicaprio, whose celebrity climate posturing has targeted Alberta, and announced that his leadership would be one that “fights for (the) needs” of Canadians, “instead of fighting for attention from global celebrities.”
Mackay, a former member of Parliament from Nova Scotia who’s returning to politics after retiring in 2015, would of course claim that he can join Conservatives west and east even better than O’toole can. His approach, however, appears to rely more on emphasizing the benefits of unity, than on riding western anger.
Speaking in a conference ballroom in Edmonton early on Thursday morning, Mackay offered a speech heavy on the rhetoric of unity for the party and country. It relied less heavily on actual policy and Alberta-specific questions, with Mackay mostly steering clear of the language of western populism. There were no denunciations of “foreign-funded” enemies or “eco-radicals” attacking Alberta’s industry.
“Goodness knows, we don’t need more drama, or dressing up or dancing; we really need outcomes and results, we need authenticity, we need action,” Mackay said Thursday.
Indeed, even when talking about Kenney’s quest for a “fair deal” for Alberta, Mackay avoided saying outright the province is getting shafted, a big part of the western Conservative belief system. He said he’s open to discussions about equalization reform, but didn’t commit outright to overhauling the system, which is widely seen in Alberta as being unfair.
While he was willing to show his appreciation for Albertans’ contributions, saying the “sweat equity” of the province’s workers has done much good across the country, he stayed focused on healing the divisions in the country, tying their cause to that of other provinces.
But O’toole has said specifically he can sell Conservative ideas across the country, and has already proven it by winning his riding of Durham, in the Toronto suburbs.
“I’m not running because I’m from Ontario,” O’toole told an audience in Leduc, Alta. “I’m running for Alberta because I can win in Ontario.”
As much as having Alberta on board is key to any leader’s success — not just for the votes, but also the bludgeon it provides to use against Justin Trudeau — the critical mass to a majority government can’t depend solely on western Canada.
“This goes back to Manning versus Harper,” said Thomas. “These tensions are not new, right?”
One Conservative official told TVO in an interview after the 2019 election that the Conservatives had banked much of their campaign on affordability and the economy, which played well in the struggling provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
But one day, after hours of knocking on doors of million-dollar homes in Toronto, he realized this narrative just wasn’t going to work in the GTA.
“These people didn’t feel vulnerable; they felt lucky,” the official said, adding that the message to the west needed to be tweaked for Toronto, but wasn’t.
That certainly suggests party insiders are as aware as anyone of the challenge of finding a message that speaks from the party’s western soul in a words that Ontarians will understand. It will be up to whoever wins the leadership to find it.