Can Trudeau rise to the challenge?
Time has come to put aside partisan bickering, and lead
Justin Trudeau hosted the most important cabinet meeting of his time as prime minister on Tuesday morning.
Nothing — not even the ministerial deliberations over NAFTA — were as critical to the health and wealth of Canadians as his government’s response to the twin threats of the COVID-19 outbreak and tumbling financial markets.
The word “existential” is overused but the Trudeau government’s next steps will dictate not only its own prospects but those of businesses, workers and seniors all over the country. Trudeau has not been at the helm when the seas have been really choppy — he is about to face the most critical test of his political career.
Canadians are looking for reassurance — a sense that there is a plan to keep them and their families safe and employed.
Oddly, the prime minister was missing in action on Monday, as the price of a barrel of oil slid below the cost of a 16-piece bucket of KFC. He did not address the nation directly on Tuesday, choosing instead to take part in the charade of question period.
These are dangerous times to put your head in your hands but what other response is there when, in the midst of the gravest crisis in a decade, the prime minister climbs into the rhetorical sandbox.
To be fair, he was provoked. Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre complained about a Liberal spending record that has “spent the cupboard bare,” even before the coronavirus hit.
That is a gross overstatement. The fiscal position may not be as strong as Trudeau wants people to believe, but with a projected deficit of 1.2 per cent of GDP this year, the Liberals have the option of doubling the deficit — and no doubt will. (By comparison, the deficit in the 2009/10 recession was 3.5 per cent of the economy.)
Still, it’s safe to say that Canadians are more eager to hear what this government is going to do to help them than what Stephen Harper’s government did to Veterans Affairs offices five years ago.
In the House, Trudeau tried to justify his government’s deficit spending. He made the contentious claim that the economy is growing and said that the “investments” made over the previous four years have paid off in terms of employment. With the coronavirus challenge on the horizon, Ottawa has leeway to invest further in Canadians, he said.
That is a partial and partisan reading of recent history. To suggest all is rosy with the economy is absurd — the Bank of Montreal downgraded its projection of this year’s growth to just 0.5 per cent.
This is precisely the time when politicians of all stripes could have redeemed themselves by trying to take the fear out of everyday life for citizens worried about their ability to pay the bills if they get sick.
Instead they indulged themselves in sophomoric point-scoring.
It is extraordinary that the prime minister has not spoken directly to Canadians over the past couple of days.
All of Canada’s leading indicators have been gripped by gravitational forces — long-term bond yields, currency, oil and stock prices have all plunged.
Telling people they’ll be safe is one thing, but what they want to hear is exactly how they’ll be safe.
In Alberta, Premier Jason Kenney explained what is happening — that for the first time since the 1930s, a decline in the demand for oil, because of coronavirus, has been compounded by a surge in supply because of a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. “We are in uncharted territory,” he said.
He acknowledged the “profound challenge” facing Alberta and Canada but said the provincial government will do everything in its power to protect people.
Kenney said his priority is to save jobs, even if it requires fiscal stimulus and deficit spending. “All options will be on the table,” he said. “We won’t let this undermine our fundamental optimism.”
It was the rhetorical equivalent of receiving a Keep Calm and Carry On coffee mug — a nice thought, if not much practical use.
But at least it sent out the message that the leadership in Alberta isn’t working office hours.
Kenney is due to meet with Trudeau and the other first ministers later this week.
Let’s hope they are more coordinated than early indicators suggest.
Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux noted that, six weeks after the first confirmed Canadian case of COVID-19, the prime minister has only just gotten around to asking provinces in a letter about their state of readiness.
The role of the opposition is to oppose, but at exceptional moments, there should be common purpose in Parliament — and this is an exceptional moment.
It would be a good time for all sides to lay down their weapons. One of the great lessons learned from the H1N1 outbreak in 2008/09 was that all parties became fully vested in resolving the crisis, rather than sniping from the sidelines, once they were invited to take part in daily briefings.
This is a government that has seemed at the mercy of every wind in recent weeks. To assert some leadership, it should engage with its political opponents and move beyond generalities by telling Canadians exactly how they will ensure that workers are not compelled to go to work if they get sick.
This is not like previous downturns, where the knack was getting money into the pockets of people who would spend it as quickly as possible.
The problems are manifold — provinces about to be hit by mass hospitalizations; businesses with liquidity issues because of supply chain disruptions; slack demand for airlines and hotels; companies short of workers because people are staying home.
Nobody expects the federal government to have all the answers — certainly not before the crisis has fully hit. Bill Morneau, the finance minister, indicated that the government will take a “continuous approach” to policy solutions, rather than trying to wrap them all in the budget.
But people do want information, reassurance and leadership — the sense that someone in Ottawa is in charge and has their best interests at heart.
It remains to be seen whether this prime minister has the capacity to rise to his greatest challenge.