Strong approval for Moe’s virus policies

Nearly two-thirds of Saskatchewan respondents to a recent survey approve of the provincial government’s response to the COVID -19 crisis, providing a first glimpse into pandemic politics in Saskatchewan.

Innovative Research surveyed 203 Saskatchewan residents through a web panel over the period May 1 to May 7. It found that 26 per cent strongly approved of how the government “has handled the outbreak,” while 39 per cent somewhat approved, for a total of 64 per cent.

Only one in five respondents disapproved, including seven per cent strongly.

The survey found 48 per cent of respondents had a favourable impression of Premier Scott Moe.

That was far more than the 22 per cent with an unfavourable impression. Twenty-five per cent had a neutral opinion.

Moe’s response to the outbreak left 40 per cent of respondents feeling better about him, compared to the 16 per cent who came away thinking worse.

The poll put the Saskatchewan Party 10 points ahead of the Saskatchewan NDP when decided and leaning voters are combined, with 37 per cent support over 27 per cent. The Saskatchewan Liberals came away with a surprisingly strong 15 points.

The Saskatchewan Party’s lead in decided vote was even stronger, with the governing party holding a 12 point lead over the NDP.

But the survey also asked how many people feel it’s time for a change in government. It found that almost half of respondents said it is.

The Innovative Research survey did not report a margin of error because it was conducted online and is not a random probability sample. But Innovative Research considers it “representative.” The results were weighted by age and gender to reflect demographics, as reported by the 2016 census.

Jim Farney, head of the politics and international studies department at the University of Regina, said it takes about 430 respondents in Saskatchewan to get a standard margin of error. But he said weighted online surveys can still be an “indicator,” and certainly are better than a random straw poll.

He said most of the results in the Innovative Research survey are in line with what he would expect, though he called the breakdown in party support “odd.” He wasn’t surprised to see the government’s strong favourable rating.

“Globally, what we’re seeing is actually quite a strong response to every government’s response, except in the U.S. There’s kind of a rally around the flag,” he said.

Farney said the Saskatchewan Party government was popular already, and seems to be holding on to that support.

“I’d be surprised not to see findings like this, given that we’ve had few deaths, we’re starting to reopen and we’re clearly better off than the rest of the country,” Farney said.

In Farney’s view, the government’s response to the COVID -19 crisis is likely to be a dominant issue of the upcoming election. It’s still too early to know how it will play out, since the course of infections and the pandemic’s economic effects remain uncertain.

“It’ll probably be the defining issue, if you lump the economy in with that,” he said.