BIG SIX BANKS WEATHER BOC STRESS TEST
Review finds risks higher for households and businesses, writes Kevin Carmichael.
Canada’s six biggest banks survived a severe stress test by the Bank of Canada, which is a relief since they might be the only thing standing between a relatively short recession and something much worse.
The analysis was part of the central bank’s latest Financial System Review (FSR), which is devoted to the COVID -19 crisis.
Generally speaking, the central bank appears confident that its historic response to the shutdown of vast swaths of the global economy has averted disaster.
Governor Stephen Poloz stuck to his contention that the recession will be brutal, but probably relatively short, in part because there appears to be little reason to worry about a financial meltdown.
“The country’s banking system and financial market infrastructures are strong enough to deal with the situation,” Poloz said before taking questions on a conference call with reporters. “To be clear, the pandemic remains a massive economic and financial challenge, possibly the largest of our lifetimes, and it will leave higher levels of debt in its wake.”
Still, thanks to decent economic growth during the past few years and the hundreds of billions of dollars in emergency funds that the feds are pushing into the economy, the governor said he was “confident that a strong financial system will help Canada emerge from this episode in relatively good shape.”
Unlike many of its peers, Canada’s central bank doesn’t have any regulatory authority over financial institutions. But it does have moral authority, and it wields the country’s most impressive array of economic researchers.
Thus, the FSR is an important instrument of policy, since central bankers use it to try to guide behaviour.
Normally, the annual FSR is a warning mechanism. The Bank of Canada flags vulnerabilities it thinks could lead to pain in the event of a shock. Since we’re currently living through such a shock, this year’s review was more of a “state of play,” as Toronto-dominion Bank economist Brian Depratto observed.
“Vulnerabilities abound, but on balance the bank appears to be cautiously optimistic that the system can handle the current and emerging stresses,” he said in a note to his clients.
Policy-makers are confident that they have avoided a credit crunch, albeit only because they took the unprecedented step of creating tens of billions of dollars to buy government bonds and company debt. The policy seems to be working, since interest rates, which spiked in March as investors retreated when the coronavirus spread through Europe and North America, have returned to pre-crisis levels.
Poloz and the central bank’s other leaders are probably less sure about how many companies and households will survive the recession without declaring bankruptcy. The central bank reckons about 20 per cent of mortgage borrowers entered the downturn with only enough cash and other liquid assets to cover two months (or less) of loan payments. Many companies are equally fragile, as some of the industries hardest hit by the crisis are also the ones in which companies were already operating with relatively little money in the bank.
“COVID -19 has hit many households and businesses hard, especially those that are highly indebted or have low cash buffers,” the FSR said. “During this period, emergency measures that provide basic incomes to households and help businesses access credit are crucial.”
Canada’s banking oligopoly constrains competition and innovation in good times. But the Big Six and the hefty cash reserves they must maintain to satisfy federal regulations are a firebreak in this crisis.
Things would be much worse if the banks were as fragile as airlines and oil companies.
Fortunately, the banks should be able to withstand a deterioration of current conditions.
Policy-makers ran a simulation of what would happen to the six biggest — Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank — if the Bank of Canada’s worst-case economic outlook came to pass.
That scenario, which the central bank acknowledges is plausible, involves a 30-per-cent plunge in GDP in the second quarter from the end of 2019 and a slow recovery that would leave economic output below pre-crisis levels for more than two years.
It’s ugly, but the banks survived the test: Arrears peaked at a rate that was about double the peak during the financial crisis, and non-performing loans would exceed recent highs.
But monetary and fiscal policy counter much of the pain, and the banks’ reserves do the rest.
The pandemic remains a ... challenge (and) will leave higher levels of debt in its wake.