COMEBACK PLAN
NHL looking ahead
Ten minutes into Gary Bettman’s news conference to announce the NHL’S return to play, the commissioner took a deep breath and paused.
“This is a bit complicated,” he said. “As if whatever I already told you hasn’t been. And I apologize for that.”
The commissioner had just finished going over the details surrounding a 24-team playoff format that includes a round robin for the top four seeds in each conference, a play-in qualifying round for the 16 bubble teams, as well as potential best-of-five series for the first two rounds.
Bettman couldn’t say when the playoffs would begin. He doesn’t know where they will be played. Depending on how the coronavirus pandemic is handled over the next several weeks, he can’t even be sure they will happen.
“These are extraordinary and unprecedented times,” said Bettman. “Any plan for the resumption of play, by definition, cannot be perfect. And I am certain that, depending on which team you root for, that you can find some element of this package that you might prefer to have done differently. But we believe we have constructed an overall plan that includes all teams that as a practical matter might have had a chance of qualifying for the playoffs when the season was paused. And this plan will produce a worthy Stanley Cup champion that will have run the post-season gauntlet that’s unique to the NHL.”
Fingers crossed, training camps would open sometime after July 1 and the Stanley Cup would be awarded either in late summer or early fall. Before any of that occurs, there will be a draft.
Well, two of them to be exact. That’s where things get really complicated.
There will be a draft lottery held on June 26, which will include the seven teams that aren’t included in the post-season (Detroit, Ottawa, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, New Jersey and Buffalo), plus the eight teams just above them in the standings.
All will have a shot at winning the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 picks, with the same odds as usual.
But here’s the change: If a team that’s in the qualifying round wins any one of the picks, then there will be a Stage 2 draw (held before the conference final).
This avoids a scenario where a team such as Montreal, which has the eighth-best odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick, ends up with a top three pick and then goes on to win the Stanley Cup.
“At the time of the first phase draws, we won’t know which eight teams won’t advance from the qualifying round,” said Bettman.
If all three picks are won by teams that aren’t in the qualifying round, then there won’t be a need for another draw. If not, then everything is up for grabs.
“All clubs involved in any Phase 2 draw as a group will have the same odds of winning,” said Bettman. “Where possible, the first of such draws, each club would have a 12½ per cent chance of winning — one in eight — which means each of the losing clubs in the qualifying round would have in effect, a three per cent chance of winning the first overall pick.”
Sound confusing? You’re not alone. While the NHL has a plan to resume the season, it appears to be written on a cocktail napkin soaked in beer. These are confusing times, as it is. Trying to logistically plan a season that may or may not happen only adds to the confusion.
Right now, the NHL is in Stage 1 of its return to play. Stage 4 is the beginning of the playoffs. That seems like a million miles away.
The league needs to settle on two hub cities to host games.
As it stands, there are eight candidates: Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Vancouver.
There also needs to be more information on testing procedures and how players and support staff will move in and out of hotels and arenas safely.
There are so many questions, so many concerns, so many unknowns.
But the NHL has a plan. And it might just result in a Stanley Cup champion, if we’re lucky to get that far.
“Let me reiterate: While we are hopeful, it is our goal that we will be able to resume play and award the Stanley Cup, we intend to do so within a time frame that will enable us to get back to a full calendar to the 2020-21 season,” said Bettman.
“At the same time, we remain focused on the safety of our players, coaches, support staff and arena personnel. We won’t set dates, choose sites or continue to play until we know it is appropriate and prudent and are approved to do so.”