Biggest winners and losers in the NHL’S playoff format
League’s unprecedented post-season plan for 24 teams is broken down by the stats
The NHL took a big step toward completing the 2019-20 season this summer after the NHL Players Association executive board voted to approve a 24-team, conference-based playoff format on Monday, part of an extensive return-to-play plan that requires further approval. On Tuesday, commissioner Gary Bettman announced the league was indeed ending its regular season and expanding the post-season to 24 teams, although it did not give a concrete timetable for the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Under the plan, the top 4 seeds in each conference, as determined by their standings points percentage when the regular season was paused on March 12, would receive byes through a round of best-offive play-in series featuring seeds 5 through 12. The format for the play-in round would be No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 (with the winner advancing to play the fourth seed), No. 6 vs. No. 11 (winner plays the third), No. 7 vs. No. 10 (winner plays the second) and No. 8 vs. No. 9 (winner plays the first). Then, the remaining 16 teams would battle for the Stanley Cup as normal. Home-ice advantage, however, would only potentially exist for a few teams, as Bettman said the modified post-season would take place in two hub cities, one for the Eastern Conference and one for the West, that haven’t been determined.
The sites under consideration are Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/st. Paul, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Vancouver.
The Montreal Canadiens benefit the most by the format change to a 24-team post-season. Their record of 31-31-9 gave them 71 points at the end of the regular season, fifth most in the Atlantic Division and 10 points out of a traditional playoff spot. However, they now enter the new format as a 12 seed against the Pittsburgh Penguins (40-23-6, 86 points).
Based on each team’s actual winloss record and its expected winloss record based on goals scored and allowed — also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage — we would expect the Canadiens to win this five-game series 24 per cent of the time.
The Penguins, meanwhile, had a 96 per cent chance to make the playoffs under the traditional format, per Hockey Reference’s playoff probabilities report, but now those chances decline to 76.
Arizona, fifth in the Pacific division (33-29-8, 74 points) benefits, too. The Coyotes were given a mere 13 per cent chance to make the playoffs during an 82-game regular season yet would face the Nashville Predators (35-26-8, 78 points) in the play-in round, giving the desert dogs a 41 per cent chance at moving on after a fivegame series.
The New York Rangers get a boost at the expense of the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes were in a wild-card spot before the season was put on hold with a 79 per cent chance at making the playoffs. That will drop to 58 per cent chance against the Rangers in a five-game series. New York will see its playoff hopes nearly double to 42 per cent from 22.
The Hurricanes, no stranger to analytics, were one of two clubs to vote against the proposed 24-team playoff format due to the possible harm it inflicted on the team.
The Tampa Bay Lightning also voted against the proposal.
“I brought the format to my team. They didn’t feel it was fair that certain teams that probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs would have a chance to make the playoffs in a best-of-five series,” Lightning forward Alex Killorn, the team’s NHLPA representative, told The Athletic.
“My team also felt it was unfair that the teams with a bye would not be as well prepared for a playoff series as the teams that had already basically played a playoff series to get into the playoffs.”
There is some reason for concern. While we have never seen this type of playoff format before, there have been instances where a team has little to play for leading up to the post-season, essentially functioning as a bye.
Tampa Bay clinched the Presidents’ Trophy in mid-march last year, essentially putting the Bolts on cruise control for the remaining nine games of the season. They were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round.
The Washington Capitals clinched the Presidents’ Trophy in late March in 2016, at the time the earliest a team has clinched home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs in 14 years. They fell to the Penguins in the second round.
No team is hurt by the proposed format more than Edmonton (3725-9, 83 points). The Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl led the league in assists and points while his teammate and team captain, Connor Mcdavid, led the NHL in assists per game. As a result, Edmonton had a 93 per cent chance to make the playoffs and a five per cent chance to win its first Stanley Cup since 1990.
Instead, the Oilers will face the Chicago Blackhawks (32-30-8, 72 points) in the play-in round, which gives the Oilers a 63 per cent chance of advancing to the fieldof-16. Chicago’s playoff chances soar from three to 37 per cent.
The underdogs would be helped further if the first two rounds after the play-in games featured five-game series instead of the traditional seven-game format. That is still under consideration and will be determined likely by how quickly the league can safely resume play.
For example, if a 40-win team faced a 30-win team in a seven-game series with home-ice advantage, it would be expected to win 77 per cent of the time. In a best-of-five series, we would expect the 40-win team to win 74 per cent of the time with home-ice advantage.
Take away the home-ice advantage and those win rates drop further to 75 and 72 per cent, respectively, for the 40-win team.
There are still hurdles to overcome, such as agreeing on health and safety protocols plus financial matters surrounding an expanded playoff format, but most of the league feels this is a viable way forward, even at the expense of teams that performed better during the course of the regular season.
“Obviously, these are extraordinary and unprecedented times,” Bettman said.
“Any plan for the resumption of play, by definition, cannot be perfect. But we believe we have constructed an overall plan that includes all teams that as a practical matter, might have had a chance (at) qualifying for the playoffs when the season was paused.
“This plan will produce a worthy Stanley Cup champion who will have run the post-season gauntlet that is unique to the NHL.”
This plan will produce a worthy Stanley Cup champion who will have run the post-season gauntlet that is unique to the NHL.