Sask. Party leads NDP by 25 points, latest poll shows

Only ‘catastrophic’ event would allow opposition to close gap, professor says

A new survey puts the Saskatchewan Party 25 points ahead of the Opposition NDP, with a bit more than four months to go before an anticipated October election.

The Angus Reid Institute, which surveyed 501 Saskatchewan residents as part of a national poll on provincial government performance, called that a “commanding lead” in a Monday summary of the results. Of 459 decided voters, 57 per cent said they were likely to support or leaning to the Saskatchewan Party, compared with 32 per cent for the NDP.

Joe Garcea, a professor in the political studies department at the University of Saskatchewan, said it would take a disaster for that kind of lead to slip away and hand victory to the NDP.

“There would have to be catastrophic events in the next few months, or whenever the election is called, for them to be able to make up that margin,” he said.

A large majority of 77 per cent of Saskatchewan respondents felt the provincial government was doing a good job of handling the COVID -19 file.

That was actually lower than most provinces, however, with numbers for some governments around 90 per cent.

But Garcea said financial concerns will become increasingly significant in the political landscape. According to the Angus Reis survey, Saskatchewan respondents are so far comparatively satisfied with how the government has handled the economy. Sixty-one per cent said it has done a good job, higher than any province except Quebec.

Saskatchewan respondents to the survey were more likely to feel the government is moving at the right pace in reopening the economy, compared to the national average. Just 23 per cent felt the province is moving too quickly, a lower share than in any province but New Brunswick. Fifty-eight per cent said the timing is about right, while 19 per cent said the process is moving too slowly.

But the Saskatchewan Party appears to have received less of a boost from its stewardship during the COVID-19 crisis than other provincial governing parties. Its support is actually down one point since late February.

Governing parties in British Columbia, Ontario, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and Quebec saw big jumps, with support for Quebec Premier Francois Legault’s party rising 14 points and B.C. Premier John Horgan’s NDP up 10 points.

Garcea said Premier Scott Moe may have had less spotlight put on him than some of those leaders, and less of an opportunity “to comfort people and to try to develop a bond with them.”

The Angus Reid results suggest limited support for the Liberals and the Green Party, though six per cent of respondents opted for “other.”

Men were far more likely to express support for the Saskatchewan Party, while its lead with women was slimmer. It led at every income level.

The NDP only managed a slight lead with young people, aged 1834. It had a more substantial lead with those holding a university degree.

The survey was conducted online, which means that it cannot be assigned a margin of error.