SHA slows some services as pandemic surge looms
Elective surgeries, diagnostics, therapies, home care on list
The Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) is preparing to slow down access to some health care services in anticipation of as many as 562 COVID-19 cases a day.
To meet that demand, the SHA is redeploying 588 full-time staff to meet the demand posed by a projected surge in daily COVID-19 cases, as well as a doubling of those in hospital and of those needing intensive care.
The changes are based on a model that projects that in two weeks daily cases could reach 562, those requiring hospitalization could hit 250 and those needing intensive care could hit 64.
The SHA'S announcement of its preparation for a surge came on the same day Saskatchewan moved past the 4,000 mark for active COVID-19 cases with an additional 259 cases and another death.
“To date, we've managed this pressure (from a COVID-19 case surge) largely by maximizing our existing capacity,” SHA CEO Scott Livingstone said at a news conference.
“Our ability to do that is over. Case surges have been too high and projected case growth in the next two weeks is even higher. We need to act now.”
While most health care services will not be affected by the slowdown, a list of 13 services that will be slowed includes some elective surgeries in Regina and Saskatoon. Livingstone did not specify which surgeries could be affected.
Other services that will be affected include diagnostics, therapies and home care.
Services like mental health, cardiology and non-elective surgeries are not expected to be affected.
The number of people with COVID-19 in hospital declined slightly to 128 on Thursday; 24 were receiving intensive care.
The intensive care unit (ICU) target of 64 cases is nearly a third more than the current ICU capacity in Regina and Saskatoon combined. The forecast suggests that by mid-december COVID-19 cases could take up 85 per cent of total ICU capacity.
As of Monday, COVID-19 cases accounted for 31 per cent of ICU capacity.
Livingstone touted the slowdown as a “dimmer switch” approach that can adjust to surges and not a “broad-based” shutdown as happened in the spring in response to the initial pandemic surge. The “service slowdown” is expected to take different forms in different parts of the province and be temporary.
The projections are based on the trends leading up to Monday and do not mean the daily cases or hospitalizations will reach the outlined thresholds.
“It's not a perfect science, but that's why we're planning,” Livingstone said.
Of the 588 health care workers set to be redeployed, the largest single number would be 175 registered nurses. Livingstone said the current redeployment would take place in existing facilities and not involve the field hospitals planned for Regina and Saskatoon.
The 259 new cases on Thursday outpaced 214 recoveries as active cases rose to 4,017 with 1,352 actives in Saskatoon and another 942 in Regina. Both of the province's two largest cities set new highs for active cases.
Active cases have exploded from 842 a month ago and the number in hospital has increased by 100.
A person from the south zone older than 80 became the 54th person to die in Saskatchewan after being diagnosed with COVID-19. November was the deadliest month by far during the pandemic, with 22 COVID-19 related deaths. December is on an unenviable pace with seven deaths in three days.
The largest number of new cases on Thursday, 112, was in the Regina zone, followed by 50 in the Saskatoon zone. The Saskatoon zone has now recorded 2,802 cases to lead the province.
Total provincial cases rose to 9,244; the 10,000-case mark looks likely to be broken next week.
The subzone that includes Shellbrook and Birch Hills, with a population of 26,661, added 10 more cases on Thursday as active cases rose to 203. The subzone that includes Swift Current (population 21,050) added 19 cases and actives rose to 101.
The new provincial total cases were identified as a result of 3,247 tests on Wednesday.
The new cases announced on Thursday ranked slightly lower than the seven-day average of new daily cases of 269. But Thursday's daily case count marked the seventh highest one-day total dating back to March.
Just over half of the diagnosed cases have no known mode of transmission or are under investigation; 43 per cent are contacts of identified cases or linked to gatherings; five per cent are connected to travel.