Pandemic's political shot in the arm
As it is said so elegantly in French ( but also in just about every other language), “rien n'est éternel.” Nothing lasts forever. Recent days have demonstrated this in two important ways.
Questions had always lingered over the practical and political implications of an immunization rollout. Would there be enough to go around? Would Canadians have to wait longer than their international allies? Would they even line up enthusiastically for their jabs when the time came?
On the latter point, soon-to-be released data from the Angus Reid Institute will show that while some amount of vaccine hesitancy and skepticism continues (as has occurred with non-pandemic-related illnesses too), the number of Canadians who express a desire to receive a COVID-19 immunization as soon as one is available has increased substantially in recent weeks.
Perhaps it was the reassurance of the first chipper, elderly patients in Britain who spoke about their experience that has made the difference. Perhaps, as the coronavirus pandemic casts its longest shadow onto what are already the darkest days of the year, the transition of the vaccine conversation from abstract concept to tangible reality has had an impact.
These upcoming data will also show that even though most in this country believe life won't go back to the way it was pre-pandemic for at least another year, they're more impressed than not by the way Justin Trudeau's government has gone about securing doses of vaccine, and have confidence in the federal government to effectively manage the rollout.
It may well be the last big political win the pandemic will afford the prime minister. Because, undeniably, the worst health tragedy in a century to so indiscriminately strike Canadians, to take their loved ones and livelihoods away, has also been a political boon to Trudeau.
It started with the first daily briefings outside Rideau Cottage, where the prime minister was able to demonstrate with authenticity (remember Mme Grégoire Trudeau's bout with the virus?) an empathy and resolve that carried huge resonance. His approval jumped a stratospheric 21 points between February and April of this year. A change in subject
( WE Charity, anyone?) resulted in a quick and commensurate drop. A return to an almost exclusive focus on pandemic management saw his numbers rebound.
But remember, rien n'est éternel. There is a massive difference between “we've got your back” and “building back better.” The beginning of the pandemic's endgame is already revealing all the familiar and banal ways this nation can and most probably will refracture. A first ministers' meeting last week reverted to an age-old fight between the provinces and Ottawa over health funding. It ended not only without resolution, but with the premiers criticizing the prime minister.
Legislation and new measures aimed at meeting this government's goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 are being slammed from one side for not being specific enough or going far enough, and from another for not being specific enough and going too far.
Other sleeper issues will reawaken. Pipeline policy. Deficit management. China. To say nothing of the pain when Canadian families and business owners who have relied on pandemic-related emergency aid programs find themselves tapered or cut off (as must eventually happen).
There has been speculation the prime minister will attempt to ride this current wave of good cheer to another election call and gamble on a majority win. There is precedent for it. Premiers in New Brunswick and British Columbia converted criticism over self-serving campaigns into decisive victories. And indeed, the prime minister's own popularity runs well ahead of his party's.
But in case we have forgotten whilst focused on much more important things, Justin Trudeau is both the Liberals' greatest asset and their worst liability. It literally took a pandemic to rehabilitate his image. But that is far from likely to prove a permanent cure.