FIVE KEY AREAS
Enbridge Inc. got the federal government’s blessing Tuesday with conditional approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline project. But Enbridge still has a lot of work to do in five key areas before it can start construction.
B.C. FIRST NATIONS
The Supreme Court of Canada has declared that the Crown must “consult and accommodate” First Nations when major projects are being planned on their traditional territory. Northern Gateway has met with vehement opposition from many aboriginal groups, due to environmental concerns, but Enbridge says many are quietly in favour of taking advantage of the economic opportunities. So far, evidence of majority First Nations support is lacking. According to testimony before the federal review panel, just 11 of 27 “aboriginal groups” within 160 kilometres of the route have agreed to take equity positions in the project despite favourable financial terms. More than half of B.C.’s 200 bands, or First Nations, have signed a declaration opposing the project. And coastal First Nations near the pipeline route are strongly opposed. There is a chance that challenges from First Nations will push the matter to the Supreme Court of Canada.
THE ENVIRONMENT
B.C. is the birthplace of Greenpeace and Canada’s environmental movement. And the “War of the Woods” campaign of the 1990s, which included civil disobedience, forced major concessions from the powerful forest products industry. Many groups and activists suggest the anti-Gateway campaign will make that 1990s campaign seem like a church picnic. And it won’t necessarily be the “extremists” as portrayed by Finance Minister Joe Oliver back in early 2012 when he was natural resources minister. Among those who have threatened to stand in front of bulldozers are Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan, a prominent New Democrat, and Alise Mills, a frequent federal Conservative and B.C. Liberal media commentator who in 2012 told a CBC interviewer she would join Rafe Mair, a fellow panellist, at a blockade against the Enbridge project.
PROVINCIAL POLITICS
B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s sensitivity to the project’s unpopularity with many British Columbians is behind her famous five conditions for B.C. government approval. Four of the five conditions remain unmet, including a demand for “world-class” land and marine safety, “world-class” environmental regimes, a respect for aboriginal rights, and a share of the economic benefits that better reflects the risks British Columbians are taking. While under intense pressure from the federal, Alberta and Saskatchewan governments to support oilsands pipelines, Clark won a majority government mandate last year on the basis she would say no to Enbridge if her demands weren’t met. Clark has staked her political future on exporting B.C.’s natural gas, rather than Alberta’s diluted bitumen, from B.C. ports.
FEDERAL POLITICS
Both Tom Mulcair’s official Opposition New Democrats and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals adamantly oppose Northern Gateway heading into the election, scheduled for October 2015. If all goes according to Enbridge’s plans, shovels will be in the ground by then, opening the door to widespread protests and civil disobedience that could increase the issue’s political profile. Does this dynamic rattle the nerves of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has 21 of B.C.’s 36 seats and stands to win most of the six new ridings coming B.C.’s way? B.C. MP and NDP House leader Peter Julian says yes. “I have no doubt that it puts most of the Conservative seats in B.C. in play.” While polls have been wildly inconsistent in B.C., most have indicated roughly 40 per cent support for the project. That’s more than enough for Harper to maintain his West Coast power base.
THE PUBLIC
While First Nations objections pose the greatest legal constraint, the views of B.C. residents are crucial — and Enbridge has shown how much it cares about public opinion with ads and its high-cost spring campaign to win public approval in a Kitimat non-binding plebiscite. But that vote, in a traditionally pro-development community that stands to benefit most from the project, resulted in a stinging rebuke for Northern Gateway. Almost 60 per cent voted against the project — an ominous omen for a company so anxious to win social licence that it flew employees from Calgary to campaign door-to-door.