Pipeline approval a saw-off for Wall
When a government is scoring around 50 per cent, it’s not usually a win.
But that’s about where Premier Brad Wall’s administration is at with its wholehearted endorsement of the federal government’s go-ahead for the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which would pump oilsands bitumen from Alberta to waiting supertankers at B.C.’s West Coast port of Kitimat. And, frankly, 50 per cent might be a bit generous.
So let us review how Wall and his government are scoring on the critical aspects of this debate:
The economics: This should be an easy win for a Saskatchewan Party government that has tied its fortune to the oil economy — even if it’s not crystal clear why Wall thinks we have a dog in the Northern Gateway fight.
After all, none of the 525,000 barrels of bitumen that would move west each day through the 1,177 kilometres of 36-inch pipe would be from Saskatchewan.
This is not the Keystone XL pipeline to the U.S. Gulf Coast, which would move Saskatchewan oil.
But there are indirect benefits in play with Northern Gateway. With 99 per cent of Canadian oil going to the U.S., we do need more options for our product. Perhaps more critically, Northern Gateway might help us deal with a long-standing issue over international oil pricing.
The West Texas Intermediate price (the price Saskatchewan gets for oil that moves to the Gulf of Mexico, which was $105.97 US a barrel Wednesday, is traditionally less than the Brent Crude price (based on North Sea oil) that was $114.30 US a barrel Wednesday).
And if oilsands ever do develop on the Saskatchewan side of the border, a pipeline to the Pacific would be beneficial.
Other benefits include the jobs created by adding $300 billion to Canada’s GDP during the next 30 years by building this $6.5-billion project (although most will be in B.C. and Alberta). Certainly, getting some of the oil off rail lines so that Saskatchewan farmers can more easily move grain could help.
The politics: This should also be an easy win for a right-wing free-enterprise government, best served by promoting the interests of the province’s No. 1 industry. There is the added advantage of Wall’s support being a big favour to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
But it may not be as clearcut a political win as one may think. Saskatchewan will now be seen as meddling in another province’s jurisdiction and opposition to Northern Gateway in B.C. is far more organized and mainstream than the Clayoquot Sound protests of two decades ago.
A premier getting political donations from Enbridge (one of the sponsors of Wall’s most recent premier’s dinner) may yet be on the wrong side of public opinion. Or at least, he might be seen as standing up for his own interests while doing the bidding of the increasingly unpopular Harper government, rather than standing up for Saskatchewan’s interests.
Still, with federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair eager to ramp up the civildisobedience rhetoric, an issue like this, which clearly distances the federal NDP philosophy from a conservative approach, can only be good for Wall in putting distance between himself and Saskatchewan NDP leader Cam Broten.
The environment: It is here where Wall loses, although being on the wrong side of environmental issues hasn’t really hurt him so far.
That said, sometimes such debates become a test of reason for politicians. So is it reasonable to believe it’s perfectly safe to move bitumen west through the Great Bear Rainforest, or to move 193,000 barrels a day of condensate (used to break up the bitumen) east through that accompanying second 20-inch pipe? What about all those tanks at the Kitimat marina or those giant supertankers in the inlet or off B.C.’s rugged northern coast, where waves can be 30 feet high? What about the salmon and crab fishing industries? What about hunting?
Maybe Saskatchewan people don’t always think environment first, but many fishermen and hunters — even conservative ones — do.
The history/First Nations relations: Again, many would argue this issue isn’t a big loss for Wall — especially politically. But if politicians learned just one thing from Justice Thomas Berger’s commission that led to the shelving of the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline, it is that First Nations concerns do matter and must be settled first.
For a supposed student of political/aboriginal history and one who has significant First Nations issues on his plate, Wall is surely missing the reality that First Nations may have legitimate claims they quite likely could win after a long battle.
And that won’t help Wall’s relations at home, either.