Voters forgotten in political strategizing over debates
Canada’s big TV networks announced Thursday they will broadcast two leaders debates during the upcoming federal election — French on Oct. 7 and English on Oct. 8 — even though the prime minister won’t show up.
This would seem to be bad news for Stephen Harper, who must have been betting that without him, the networks wouldn’t stage a primetime showcase for his rivals 10 days before we go to the polls.
But the TV executives decided that they don’t have to cancel their party just because he isn’t coming. They won’t put an empty chair on the stage, but they have called his bluff, announcing that the NDP, Liberals, Bloc Quebecois and Greens “have agreed to participate.”
But does Tom Mulcair really want to debate Justin Trudeau and Elizabeth May?
“As you know, we have agreed in principle to participate,” said NDP spokesman George Soule. “We remain hopeful the prime minister will be there.”
That sounds like Mulcair might not show if Harper won’t.
Off the record, NDP strategists say they haven’t decided yet.
The conventional wisdom is that Mulcair, a more experienced and fiercer debater, will maul Trudeau, but voter evaluation of debate performance depends in large part on expectations.
If everyone expects Mulcair to make Trudeau look like he should be back in his old job as critic for amateur sport, Trudeau will win if he just appears reasonably articulate, which he is.
The Liberals say they are keen to see the two leaders debate policy, to press Mulcair on taxes, marijuana and the Sherbrooke declaration on Quebec independence.
Remember how Trudeau surprised everyone who watched him box Patrick Brazeau. He is not to be underestimated.
Then there’s Elizabeth May. The NDPers think she’s in league with the Liberals and are afraid she’ll help Trudeau and attack Mulcair.
When you look at the angles, you can see why the New Democrats have doubts. They are leading in the polls and hope to continue building momentum as more Canadians realize that they are the likeliest party to oust Harper.
If they are still in that position come early October, they will wish they hadn’t agreed to a debate with an audience big enough to shift the momentum.
But they can’t pull out then. If they are going to announce that Mulcair has important beard-trimming appointments on Oct. 7 and 8, they’d better do so soon.
Harper could still reverse himself and decide to participate, although he would be undercutting key strategist Kory Teneycke, the guy who pulled out of the consortium debate, ushering in a new era of multiple debates on the Internet.
Teneycke recently returned to politics from the Sun News Network after failing to bring the networks to their knees. By snubbing the consortium, he was jabbing his finger in the eyes of his former competitors and seeking tactical advantage, since he could choose the ground on which Harper would fight.
At the time, Harper’s chief threat was Trudeau. Now it seems to be Mulcair. One NDP strategist said they welcomed the Tory move to add debates since they will be like “question period on crack” for Mulcair.
The first debate will be Aug. 6, hosted by Maclean’s magazine and broadcast nationally. It will be followed by debates hosted by the Globe & Mail and Munk Debates, and by TVA, which will be huge in Quebec.
Will they be undercards for a main event hosted by the big networks?
I’d wager Harper’s pride will keep him away and Mulcair’s pride will see that he’s there.
Of course, voters would be best served if the politicians stop their silly game of chicken and just show up and ask us for our votes.