THE NUMBERS GAME
Latest poll shows top three candidates for mayor in tight race
26% DON ATCHISON
23% CHARLIE CLARK
22% KELLEY MOORE
1% DEVON HEIN
*Undecided 28%
Saskatoon’s mayoral race has turned into a tight three-way contest with the number of undecided voters up, a new poll says.
Incumbent Don Atchison still leads with 26 per cent, followed by veteran councillor Charlie Clark at 23 per cent and newcomer Kelley Moore at 22 per cent in the Mainstreet Research-Postmedia Network Inc. poll.
The support for Atchison and Clark has dropped slightly from a poll taken Sept. 13, while those who say they would vote for Moore has increased. The number of undecided has jumped to 28 per cent from 22 per cent.
Mainstreet executive vice-president David Valentin said the apparently growing number of undecided voters, combined with the close race, mean the mayor’s chair is up for grabs.
“My main take-away is why in the world is the undecided vote up?” Valentin said in an interview Thursday. “That’s not supposed to happen during campaigns.”
The random telephone survey, which included cellphones and land lines, of 834 residents was conducted Tuesday. It is considered accurate within 3.38 per cent 19 times out of 20.
In the Sept. 13 poll, Atchison garnered 29 per cent, followed by Clark at 24 per cent and Moore at 18 per cent. Former mayor Henry Dayday dropped out of the race since the last poll. Late entry Devon Hein got just one per cent in Tuesday’s poll.
Among decided voters, Atchison leads with 36 per cent, followed by Clark at 32 per cent and Moore at 31 per cent.
“They’re all in good places,” Valentin said. “I don’t think any are where they want to be.”
Atchison leads among men with 31 per cent of the vote, compared to 22 per cent for Clark and 19 per cent for Moore. Moore and Clark are virtually tied for the lead among women with 25 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively. Atchison is right behind with 21 per cent.
Among women voters, 29 per cent remain undecided.
Atchison has increased his lead among seniors to 48 per cent with Moore at 15 per cent and Clark at 11 per cent. Clark, meanwhile, leads among the 18-34 demographic at 35 per cent, followed by Moore at 28 per cent and Atchison at 19 per cent.
Atchison’s support increases as respondents age, while the support for both Clark and Moore decline as people get older.
Thirty per cent of those aged 50 to 64 are still undecided, the most among any age group.
“People’s thoughts are not static,” Valentin said. “They’re evolving every single day.”
Atchison’s support is the most solid, with 71 per cent calling themselves strong supporters and 29 per cent saying they might change their minds. Among Clark’s supporters, 63 per cent call themselves strong and 37 per cent might vote for someone else.
Moore’s support is the weakest, with slightly more than half saying they might vote for someone else and 49 per cent saying they are strong supporters.
The poll was taken before the four contenders clashed in their first televised debate, a tame event on Wednesday sponsored by several Saskatoon business organizations.
Atchison led with 51 per cent of respondents saying they have an unfavourable view of him, but also edged Clark with the highest favourable rating at 38 per cent. Ten per cent said they are not sure about the mayor of the last 13 years.
Clark’s favourability registered at 34 per cent, just ahead of those who view him unfavourably at 29 per cent. Eleven per cent said they were not familiar with Clark, a city councillor for 10 years, while 26 per cent were not sure.
Thirty-eight per cent say they are not familiar with Moore, while 22 per cent view her favourably, 29 per cent are not sure and 11 per cent have an unfavourable view.
Eighty-one per cent say they are not familiar with Hein, while 12 per cent are not sure, five per cent see him unfavourably and two per cent have a favourable view.