A little rain doesn’t mean the sky is falling

Attitudes have shifted in face of latest economic slowdown

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow stated a truism in the 1840s when he wrote “into each life some rain must fall.”

It is the nature of our lives — every high is followed by a low, every wave a trough and every apex eventually has a nadir.

For Saskatchewan watchers it’s been an intriguing past couple of years as the economy has slowed. Many of us have been waiting for something that we reluctantly expected but did not want — the crash of optimism and hope. But it hasn’t happened.

Historically, although we don’t face the same pronounced boom-bust cycles as neighbouring Alberta, when the doldrums do arrive in Saskatchewan after a period of economic success they often seem to suck the life and soul out of us.

From the end of the 1970s resource boom when high interest rates and a crippling recession hit hard to a drought and recession 10 years later, and through cycles in the 1990s and early 2000s, economic downturns often featured several characteristics.

First, there was the shared sense of inevitability, resignation and even self-loathing (we knew good things weren’t going to last because we didn’t really deserve them in the first place).

Second, there was the blaming — the downturn had to be someone’s fault.

Finally, there was the exodus to greater opportunity as people headed to Alberta, B.C. or Ontario.

One of Saskatchewan’s longest and most remarkable periods of economic success began as early as 2004 when the federalprovincial equalization formula declared us to finally be a “have” province (although the NDP government of the day expected “we’d always be in and out of ‘have-not province’ status”).

Economic momentum began, and by 2007 and onward we soared to a sustained period of growth without modern precedent.

The robust economy began to slide in late 2014 along with the price of oil. Since then, potash and uranium prices have also weakened.

The saving grace in recent times has been strong agricultural performance. And while no sector of the economy is near the seismic levels of a few years ago, this time the slowdown feels different.

Capital investment in Saskatchewan has declined by 30 per cent during the past two years, an expected consequence of an economy slowing down.

But the money spent on machinery, buildings and assets — most of it coming from the private sector — is still expected to be nearly double the province’s long-term average capital spending of $7 billion per year.

Another important litmus test of economic growth is population. From Saskatchewan’s low of 991,000 people in early 2006, the population has grown ever since, now posting a new all-time high of 1,150,632. That is 5,000 more people than were here three months earlier.

Over 10 years, our population has grown by 16 per cent.

This downturn does not see Saskatchewan people gloomily accepting our fates, turning negative or engaging in the weird self-flagellation of the past, where we faced adversity and headed for the exits.

Something is different this time. From the old times of security rather than opportunity, scarcity instead of abundance, fear over hope — attitudes have shifted.

Part of it is the growth and proliferation of Gen Y/millennials in our population — the people born since 1982 — who have never known slow times and don’t do despair well. They are change adapters who are seemingly not prepared to concede or surrender.

The same goes for tens of thousands of newcomers who, as part of the immigrant experience, sought out new opportunities in a new home and are not ready to yield.

In part, it may also be that Alberta — the historic home of the Saskatchewan diaspora — is significantly worse off than we are and thoughts of migrating are put off.

This, too, shall pass. And while a little rain is coming down, it isn’t the sky falling.