THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN ON THE SASKATOON MEEWASIN VOTE
Saskatoon Meewasin voters made their desire for change known on Thursday, electing longtime NDP supporter and social justice advocate Ryan Meili to the provincial legislature.
Beating Saskatchewan Party candidate Brent Penner by more than 700 votes, Meili managed to capture 2,666 votes, or 54.2 per cent, compared to 1,962 votes cast for Penner at 39.9 per cent. Candidates for the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, the Saskatchewan Green Party and the Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan each captured less than five per cent of the vote.
Some experts say the win will spur a rejuvenation within the NDP and send a message to the incumbent Saskatchewan Party, while others say the race will have little impact on governance, since the majority of seats are still held by Sask. Party MLAs.
WIN CAN ENERGIZE THE NDP
Joe Garcea, a political scientist at the University of Saskatchewan, said Meili’s win will boost the NDP, just as a loss would have been a major setback for the party.
“It’s going to put some winds in the sails of the NDP party in terms of energizing them and moving them forward,” he said. “If they would have lost, they would have been quite demoralized and confused about what — if anything — they could do to gain strength and seats in the upcoming general election. So this was really important for them.”
With the Sask. Party government planning to consolidate health regions, the election of Meili — a medical doctor — provides the NDP with an expert who can speak authoritatively about the changes and their effects.
The Sask. Party has been adamant consolidation will save millions, without changing quality or levels of service.
FIRST ‘BRIGHT LIGHT’ FOR OPPOSITION NDP IN DECADE
Charles Smith, a political scientist at the University of Saskatchewan’s St. Thomas More College, said the win in Saskatoon Meewasin was the first for the party in recent history.
“If you look at the NDP provincially in the last 10 years, they have had nothing to celebrate. Since 2007, they have consistently been beaten handily by the Sask. Party. They’ve only been able to hold on to seats they had previously,” he said. “This is the first real, bright light for the party in the last decade.”
VICTORY SENDS SIGNAL, BUT SASK. PARTY GOV’T STRENGTH STANDS
Greg Poelzer, a political scientist and professor in the School of Environment and Sustainability at the U of S, said the win doesn’t change much for the Sask. Party, which still has 80 per cent of Saskatchewan’s 61 MLA seats.
However, Meili’s victory, which brings the NDP to 11 seats, does send a signal, he said.
“It’s a bit of a wake-up call for the Sask. Party and its supporters that you can’t be complacent. Just because you’re the governing party, just because you’ve had electoral success in the past, doesn’t mean you can take that for granted.”
He also referenced changes in the health-care sector as a factor in why Meili may have emerged the victor. The constituency includes Saskatoon’s City Hospital, and numerous health-care employees likely work and live in the area, he said.
“That wouldn’t be a surprise that they’d be a boost for the NDP, just given the fiscal climate that we’re in right now.”
LOW VOTER TURNOUT HURT BOTH MAJOR PARTIES
Poelzer noted only 4,923 of the 12,121 registered voters cast ballots. Low turnout may be a “bit of a negative” for both the Sask. Party and the NDP, he said.
While turnout is usually lower in a byelection than a general election, complacent Sask. Party voters and low turnout from NDP supporters despite a well-known candidate may give both parties pause, he said.
The fact Meili won by such a large margin — beating Penner by more than 14.3 per cent — may have positioned him well for a potential NDP leadership bid in the future, Poelzer added.
Thursday’s byelection results are considered unofficial. One remaining ballot box will be opened on March 14, at which time the results will be considered final.