Meili’s byelection win sets the tone for tough session
If one thing can be gleaned from Thursday’s Saskatoon Meewasin byelection, it’s that even Saskatchewan Party voters in the riding don’t seem enamoured with this government’s direction.
Premier Brad Wall should be paying attention to that message as the legislature resumes sitting Monday.
But instead, expect Wall et al. to make this a politically charged sitting by nurturing divisions they think will now exist in the NDP caucus after the arrival of potential NDP leadership candidate Ryan Meili.
Admittedly, Meili’s relatively easy win isn’t quite the glorious victory New Democrats are now making it out to be.
As someone who has twice previously run for the provincial leadership (and is likely to again do in June 2018) and as someone very recognizable as a social advocate doctor, Meili had a tremendous name-recognition advantage over Sask. Party candidate Brent Penner — executive director of the Saskatoon Downtown Business Association and the son of a former longtime city councillor.
Sure, this was the first time the Sask. Party has ever lost a byelection in a seat it held and only the third time in its 20-year history it’s lost one of its seats — a rather remarkable record for a party that’s now governed for half of its existence.
But let us recall this is an urban area that the NDP had held from 1986 to 2011, when MLA Roger Parent, who died late last year, won his first of two elections.
It would have actually been a huge body blow to the NDP if Meili had lost — especially at a time when Wall’s government is running a $1.2-billion deficit and is floating a lot of nasty ideas to address it.
That said, Meewasin voters — especially Wall’s own Sask. Party voters — seemed to have a message for his government.
The 4,923 votes cast Thursday were 2,009 fewer than the 6,932 votes in the riding in the April 2016 general election — perhaps a sign of indifference that the government might interpret as voters not being mad enough to get out and vote against them.
In fact, every party’s candidate got fewer votes — including Meili, whose 2,666 were 311 fewer than the 2,977 garnered by NDP candidate Nicole White 11 months ago.
But to ignore the Sask. Party’s vote decline would be a mistake.
Penner’s 1,962 votes were a whopping 1,538 fewer than Parent’s 3,500 votes in 2016. Essentially, three out of every four Meewasin voters who stayed home Thursday night were Sask. Party supporters. And in a byelection where a governing party can focus all its attention on identifying and getting its riding vote out, this means something.
The bottom line is the NDP increased its Meewasin popular vote to 54.2 per cent from 43 per cent in the general election while the Sask. Party saw its popular vote fall to 39.9 per cent from 50.4 per cent in the April vote.
Of course, an unsurprising Meili win now allows Wall and the Sask. Party to implement Plan B — deflect from the political problem of a $1.2-billion deficit by reminding voters the alternative may be an NDP Opposition led by Meili who is further left and has voiced support for a carbon tax.
On no fewer than five occasions Thursday night, Wall mentioned Meili’s NDP leadership aspirations and/or his support for the carbon tax.
And if reporters somehow missed that point, Wall’s executive council communications eagerly sent out to reporters Friday morning Wall’s audio of scrums, along with his Twitter and Facebook posts making the same point.
The morning communication from Wall and/or his staff even went so far as to say: “Congratulations to Mr. Meili on his win and I’m sure he will work on being the next leader of the NDP right away.” (Officially, Meili said Friday morning he has not made his decision on a leadership bid.)
Even in Wall’s world, where the line between politics and government communication has been blurred beyond recognition, this was over that line.
However, it did say a lot about how Wall intends to handle the message he received from Saskatoon Meewasin voters ... and what this spring sitting will be like.