View rumours of Wall’s departure with skepticism
He has plenty left to do and a legacy he wants to protect
Since the denial of the last round of rumours of Premier Brad Wall’s pending departure from Saskatchewan politics, what we’ve mostly seen are more of the same.
Prior to the spring session and during budget preparations — a period, one suspects, when any right-minded politician would seriously consider hightailing for higher ground — there was ample talk of Wall leaving. In fact, Saskatchewan Party sources say the talk was such that Wall made it known about the time of the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association convention in January that any caucus member quietly or otherwise organizing for a leadership run should cease and desist.
The rumours died down during the spring session when the focus was on the 2017-18 budget. But post-legislative session, the rumours have re-emerged, often “validated” by things that may or may not be all that unusual. or example, high-ranking Sask. Party types like party CEO Patrick Bundrock and Wall chief of staff Reg Downs being at the recent Conservative leadership convention. Normally, Sask. Party operatives have kept their distance from federal events. Seeing those close to Wall at a federal event has fuelled speculation they’ve been given the blessing to explore their own exit strategy in anticipation of Wall’s departure.
Then there is the reality that life cannot be as much fun for Wall as it used to be.
As you will notice in the annual report card in today’s newspaper, the once seemingly invincible Wall is sliding towards average as both a leader and a competent asset. The recent Mainstreet/Postmedia poll suggesting that there are now more Saskatchewan people dissatisfied (49 per cent) than satisfied (46 per cent) bears out that sentiment. This is clearly not the image or the legacy Wall wants, causing some to speculate he might want to leave while his legacy is still somewhat intact.
Life has got to be a lot less fun for the 10-year premier — something that would seem obvious in both the recent budget and its outcome, which includes a credit rating downgrade.
However, there are some very good reasons why rumours of Wall’s pending departure should be considered just that ... rumours. Consider the following:
The NDP Opposition is in the throes of its own leadership change/uncertainty, which would make any realistic premier think that now is not the time to panic. Moreover, Wall would know full well that pulling the plug after either a slight decline in the opinion polls or in the face of a new NDP leader would send the wrong message for the Sask. Party’s future. While there is an urban surge for the NDP, it has neither a rural base nor much grassroots organization. That would put Wall in good stead for a possible fourth consecutive term — Tommy Douglas territory for a premier who views political history as important.
While Jeremy Harrison, Kevin Doherty, Dustin Duncan, Tina Beaudry-Mellor and Gord Wyatt are all names people talk about as a possible successor, none are of Brad Wall calibre. He is the Sask. Party brand. It would weigh heavily on Wall if he left the party vulnerable to defeat.
You might have heard the Sask. Party radio advertisement — a clip from Wall’s recent fundraising speech — in which he talks about the lineup in Tim Hortons where everyone says the person behind will pay, until the total bill is dumped on a 16-year-old girl at the end of the line.
This is more than rhetoric for Wall. Entering politics in the Grant Devine era, the last thing he wants to see as his own legacy is a big debt. Nor does one normally start what he started in the 2017-18 budget without an eye on finishing it. There will be oil company board appointments, but there really isn’t any place to go. Ambassadorship possibilities might open under an Andrew Scheer-led federal Conservative government, but that isn’t happening anytime soon ... if at all.
Of course, only Wall really knows, but there do seem to be a lot of logical reasons why he will be around as premier for a while yet.