Public souring on dairy quotas, poll finds

With NAFTA negotiations expected to start within weeks, one of the touchiest issues for the Canadian government will be supply management — the quota system the dairy lobby fiercely protects and politicians fear to tread on.

It seems Canadians, however, take a more open-minded view. And they take it despite knowing very little about what supply management actually is or what products it affects.

A summer poll of 1,500 people conducted by the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) concludes a majority of Canadians are OK with using supply management as a bargaining chip during NAFTA talks, with 26 per cent saying we should immediately offer to scrap it and 45 per cent saying that should only be a last resort.

Numerous studies show that supply management, which allots production quotas to certain Canadian farmers and puts heavy tariffs on imports, raises the price of milk, cheese and eggs for Canadian consumers. Other countries target it during free trade discussions as an egregious form of protectionism. But Canada’s politicians tend to treat it as an untouchable issue, thanks in large part to the organized power of the dairy industry.

The Angus Reid Institute poll shows that when supply management is explained to people, their views on it tend to be nuanced, with about a third of people willing to accept higher prices in exchange for protecting a regulated Canadian industry that creates reasonable profits for farmers and ensures quality products.

Opponents of a supply-managed system tend to argue for more consumer choice and lower prices.

But the poll also shows that most people have no idea what it is.

One question asked: “Since the early 1970s, some farms in Canada have operated under a system called ‘supply management.’ How aware are you of this system?” A majority in every province said they know nothing about it, with most others saying they know just a little. An average of just four per cent of respondents said they knew a lot about it and could explain the system’s pros and cons (this includes five per cent of respondents in both Quebec and Ontario).

CANADIANS ARE WILLING TO USE SUPPLY MANAGEMENT AS BARGAINING CHIP: POLL

The poll then asked people to name products regulated by supply management. Only 51 per cent identified milk. The next highest product, named by 42 per cent of respondents, was beef, which is not supplymanaged.

Even among the very small group who declared they knew a lot about supply management and could discuss it in detail, one in three incorrectly named beef or pork as a supply-managed product, and one out of five failed to correctly identify a single supply-managed product.

“There’s no doubt that the level of awareness, in terms of the actual nuts and bolts of supply management, is fairly low,” said Shachi Kurl, the ARI’s executive director. “If you’re a proponent of scrapping supply management, maybe that works for you, or if you’re an opponent maybe that works for you. There’s no opinion like an unformed opinion in this debate.”

But she said the deeper results in the poll show people are “a little bit all over the map on this issue.” The poll used an online survey of members of the Angus Reid Forum, and was self-commissioned by the ARI.

Once the arguments for and against supply management were laid out, roughly a third people said they’re OK with paying higher prices for supply-managed products, with slightly higher numbers for milk and cheese than for eggs and chicken breasts. Overall, once it was fully explained, the proportions of people who supported, opposed or remained unsure about supply management were nearly even at one-third apiece.

Should supply management be ended, 41 per cent of respondents said they’d support a transition fund for affected farmers (the question proposed a fund of $4 billion).

As for NAFTA, when the U.S. government released its negotiation priorities in July, they didn’t specifically mention supply management — but it’s a safe bet it will come up. U.S. President Donald Trump has previously singled out Canada’s dairy farmers as a threat to Wisconsin’s.

The poll showed just 29 per cent of respondents felt Canada should “stand firm on supply management, even if it means the United States may retaliate.”

“There is a willingness, a very clear willingness, to see supply management get scrapped ... it’s certainly something people in this country say, if push came to shove, we might be prepared to let it go,” Kurl said.

“But that’s not the view of everyone.”