Saskatoon StarPhoenix

MORE HARSH EXCHANGES BETWEEN KIM JONG-UN AND TRUMP,

- ERIC TALMADGE

SEOUL • Threatenin­g to fire a volley of missiles toward a major U.S. military hub — and the home to 160,000 American civilians — may seem like a pretty bad move for a country that is seriously outgunned and has an awful lot to lose.

So what, ultimately, is Pyongyang trying to accomplish?

A lot of things, actually.

1. BUILD THE CRED

North Korea sees the United States as an existentia­l threat.

It knows that if it is going to be taken seriously, it needs to have a credible military deterrent. Its strategy for years, if not decades, has been to attain that by building longrange missiles that can carry nuclear warheads to targets on the U.S. mainland. It’s not good enough just to claim to have that capability — it must be demonstrat­ed.

Successful tests provide the data needed to make technical advances and valuable training for ground troops. Provocativ­e testing or training also is a way of gauging where Washington’s red lines are.

2. CLAIM A NEW NORM

North Korea has said many times it has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons. It doesn’t want to use them as a bargaining chip — or in a war it could not possibly survive. It wants them as a status-booster.

Pyongyang wants to force the United States to accept that it is a nuclear power, as it did with Pakistan and India, and treat it with commensura­te respect.

3. USE THE LEVERAGE

Though Trump is taking a very hard-line approach, at least in his rhetoric, growing concerns over Kim Jong Un’s accelerate­d missile launches have added strength to the camp in the United States calling for a diplomatic resolution. That would likely involve some “carrots” — compromise­s that would be attractive in North Korea’s eyes. This is Pyongyang’s potential payoff.

Just forcing the U.S. to talk would in itself be a success for North Korea. Especially if it gives the appearance of talks between equals.

4. PUSH FOR WHAT YOU REALLY WANT

What North Korea wants most is security. Its regime wants to survive.

It wants assurances it won’t be attacked, or suffocated by economic sanctions.

It wants a peace treaty formally replacing the armistice that ended the shooting war phase of the 1950-1953 Korean War. Getting any of those things would require a sea change in relations with not only Washington, but also Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and possibly Moscow.

The good news, for everyone involved, is that North Korea isn’t likely to get what it really wants by starting another war.

But the bad news is that it’s not at all clear the North’s actions will help it achieve its goals.

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