Farmer’s almanac predicts mild winter for Prairies

But Environment Canada says long-term forecasts are difficult due to La Nada

Warm is the keyword for weather in southern Saskatchewan for the upcoming year, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

The popular forecasting tool expects this winter to be “milder than normal” in the Canadian Prairie region covering southern Alberta to Manitoba, with the coldest periods running through December and early February and above-average temperatures expected from January to March.

And chances are you can keep your shovels in the shed longer this winter as well as the almanac predicts a decrease in overall snowfall throughout the winter months. The most snow is forecast to fall at the beginning of the season, from mid- to late November, and as spring approaches in mid-March.

Although the spring is expected to bring more rain and slightly cooler temperatures than average, next summer may be something to look forward to. The almanac predicts it will be “warmer than normal,” with the mercury hitting its highest point between the end of July and the beginning of August. That’s not all that surprising as it’s often the peak of warmth every summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which published its first edition in 1792, uses climatology, solar science and meteorology to devise a formula comparing solar and historical weather patterns with current solar activity to predict weather events and long-term trends.

This approach to long-term forecasting differs from the approach taken by Environment Canada, which predicts seasonal forecasts based on the presence of El Niño or La Niña ocean currents cycling up from South America.

This year, because there is no El Niño or La Niña present — an event referred to as La Nada — Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said it’s much more difficult to predict forecasts into the long term.

“Those two things we have been able to hang our hat on in the past and infer,” she said.

She explained that because Environment Canada relies on correlations between these ocean currents and past weather events, the farthest she is able to predict is into the end of this fall — which she said will continue the trend of warmer than average temperatures Saskatoon saw in the spring and summer.

“The Farmer’s Almanac is pretty broad,” Lang concluded.

“We usually don’t stick our neck out that far to try to make those kind of predictions, especially when so much can change as the year continues.”

We usually don’t stick our neck out that far to try to make those kind of predictions, especially when so much can change as the year continues.