Subsoil moisture means yields better than expected
Yields better than initially expected because of drought, writes Kevin Hursh.
Despite one of the driest and hottest summers ever recorded in southern Saskatchewan, crops are yielding amazingly well.
Yes, some producers will have crop insurance claims, but for the most part production is higher than expected thanks to subsoil moisture from last year.
Statistics Canada has released its first yield and production estimates. Those estimates, combined with current prices, show the relative profitability of the different cropping options.
Even though yields are down and the price is not inspiring, canola is the crop that will pay the bills on a lot of farms again this year. Saskatchewan’s average canola yield is estimated at 32 bushels per acre, below average and a full 10 bushels per acre below last year’s big crop.
With current canola prices of around $10.50 a bushel, the average canola crop in Saskatchewan generates a gross return of around $336 an acre. That towers over most other crops, but it must be noted with high seed costs and a high nitrogen requirement, canola is relatively expensive to grow.
Saskatchewan’s average spring wheat yield is estimated at 37.5 bushels an acre. With a current price of around $6.50, that’s a gross return of $240 an acre.
Durum has a much lower average yield of 27 bushels per acre because it’s grown in southern areas more affected by drought. Durum prices, buoyed earlier in the summer by drought fears, have been dropping.
A price of $9 a bushel was available for some of the first durum harvested in mid-August. The price is now in the $7.60 range, generating an average gross return of just $205 an acre.
StatCan pegs the average barley yield in Saskatchewan at about 57 bushels an acre. With a feed barley price of around $3.30, the gross return is an uninspiring $188 an acre. If you’re able to sell your barley for malting, the economics improve substantially.
The average flaxseed yield in Saskatchewan is only 18 bushels per acre. With a price of around $12 a bushel, the average gross return is $216 an acre.
Soybean acreage increased dramatically in Saskatchewan this year. The early yield estimate is 24 bushels an acre. Assuming a local price of around $10.50 a bushel, the average soybean return is competitive with many other crops at $252 an acre.
On lentils, there’s a huge difference in gross return between the red and green types. The red lentil price has slipped to around 22 cents a pound. With a StatCan estimated yield of 1,166 pounds per acre, red lentils generate a gross return of $257 an acre, a disappointment compared to the big returns of previous years.
The price for a No. 2 large green lentil is almost double at around 42 cents a pound, generating a gross return of $489 an acre. In fairness, red lentils typically yield a bit better than large greens and they’re less expensive to grow because of lower seed costs. Still, large green profitability is going to be far ahead of the reds.
Among the field crops reported by StatCan, the gross return winner by a mile is chickpeas. Average yield is estimated at 1,225 pounds an acre and kabuli chickpeas currently have bids around 63 cents a pound, generating a gross return of $772 an acre, more than double that of canola.
Chickpeas are an expensive and risky crop and they are really only feasible in south-central and southwestern Saskatchewan.
As harvest proceeds, yield estimates will be revised and prices will continue to fluctuate.
One thing is for sure. This year’s crop was produced on all the rain from last summer and fall. The northern grain belt isn’t as parched, but elsewhere conditions are now bone dry and a great deal of precipitation will be needed to grow a decent crop in 2018.
Kevin Hursh is an agricultural journalist, consultant and farmer. He can be reached at kevin@hursh.ca.