Province’s economy continues to struggle

Labour market remains stagnant

Saskatchewan’s economy REGINA continues to lag.

There are signs of good news, but the big indicators — employment, capital investment, GDP — are struggling.

Signs of optimism are there: The agricultural industry is in good shape and construction is doing OK.

But as Sask Trends Monitor publisher Doug Elliott puts it, “in general, the economy is in a slump.”

One indicator of that is the province’s stagnant labour market. Year-to-year employment numbers for September were down 0.2 per cent this year, the fourth month in a row with a year-over-year decline.

According to Sask Trends Monitor, employment in the first three quarters averaged 569,100, which is the same as the first three quarters of 2016.

What may be more troubling is what the numbers suggest in regards to the prospect of those unemployed re-entering the workforce. While the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate declined from a year ago, the number of people out of the labour force — not working or looking for work — increased by five per cent.

Elliott said some specific sectors are doing well now, though.

“Agriculture is in pretty good shape,” he said, noting prices are high in the agricultural sector and farmers have had a string of good production years.

He said the construction industry is also doing fairly well.

According to the province, the value of building permits provincewide has increased 24.4 per cent since July. Non-residential building permits increased 92.3 per cent since July, although residential permits dropped by 10 per cent in the same period.

Elliott said there is “some slow down in consumer spending” with much of that being attributed to people spending less at restaurants and bars, in part because of higher prices resulting from the most recent provincial budget.

From July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017, Saskatchewan’s population rose by 15,337. Countrywide, that was the fifth-highest growth rate and an indication the province’s population is not growing as fast as it was during the height of Saskatchewan’s boom.

Still, the province is boasting the population has grown for 45 consecutive quarters.

Elliott noted population is a lagging economic indicator and raised concern over how long growth can continue with the somewhat stagnant economic growth.