What’s Trump’s NAFTA strategy? Seven experts take best guess
Wondering what goes on between Donald Trump’s ears? You’re not alone.
As the fourth round of negotiations on an updated North American Free Trade Agreement wrapped up Tuesday, we asked a roster of Canadian experts (and an American, too) to put themselves in the president’s shoes.
Here’s what they had to say.:
TOUGH TO BARGAIN WHEN TALKS NOT NORMAL
Meredith Lilly, Simon Reisman chair in International Affairs at Carleton University and former international trade adviser to prime minister Stephen Harper
“This is the furthest thing from a normal negotiation that we’ve ever experienced. This is the first time Canada has entered into negotiations with a country whose leadership doesn’t necessarily want a deal — at least not one that would ever be acceptable to Mexico and Canada,” said Lilly.
That makes it difficult for those two nations to bargain seriously on the toughest issues ” she said.
‘OUTRAGEOUS’ TRUMP IS IN A TUNNEL BY HIMSELF
Isabelle Bouchard, director of communications and government relations at the Dairy Farmers of Canada and attendee of all NAFTA negotiating rounds
Trump seems to be making outrageous propositions now (including demanding that Canada end supply management for dairy) to force slightly-more-moderate proposals later, Bouchard said. “He wants it all for America and us, we’re just spectators of his greatness,” she said sarcastically.
THE WORLD IS UPSIDE DOWN AND INSIDE OUT
Maryscott Greenwood, principal at Dentons’ Public Policy and Regulation group in Washington, D.C. and former American diplomat to Canada
“I think he’s trying to figure out if he can fulfil a campaign promise in some manner. If he can, for example, grow manufacturing in the United States without completely screwing up the economy,” she said.
Trump has been “frustrated by the constitutional system that he finds himself in” on other promises, she said, so he may see this as an area where he can make gains.
“The world is upside down and inside out and that’s the way he likes it. And people are adjusting to it. And it’s not easy.”
NO CRYSTAL BALL FOR PRESIDENT’S BRAIN
Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute
“There is no orb, there is no crystal ball ... or way to look into the heart of mind of Donald Trump to see where this is heading,” said Kurl.
And it may be smarter to pay attention to the backroom meetings than the president’s tweets, she said.
One thing for sure: Canadians are coming together in the face of Trump’s sabre-rattling. According to Angus Reid polling data, support for NAFTA has soared in the past year.
TRIGGER FINGER TWEETS AND ‘EGO-INFLATION’
Sujata Dey, trade campaigner at the Council of Canadians, a nonprofit organization critical of free trade deals
“With his bluster, and rapidly shifting moods, and trigger finger tweets, Trump does give the impression of an unco-ordinated, hyper-impulsive president with no fixed NAFTA strategy,” said Dey.
The president is about “ego-inflation,” not reaching an end goal, she said.
This may not be effective but it reaches his main audience: those who “rightfully feel left out of globalization and have not felt the benefits.”
GET READY FOR A POST-NAFTA WORLD
Astrid Pregel, president of Feminomics, a consulting firm focused on women’s economic empowerment
“We are dealing with a president who has never negotiated an international trade deal, whose grasp of the issues appears questionable and whose focus is rhetoric aimed at his base,” said Pregel.
Whatever happens, Canada has to be ready for termination of the deal, she said.
“It really could happen that the Americans will work against their own economic interests. We have to be prepared to create a post-NAFTA world built on our strengths, resources and talents,” she said.
AMERICAN BUSINESSES AREN’T EVEN ONSIDE
Perrin Beatty, president and chief executive officer of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce
Speaking to the Financial Post from Washington, Beatty said, “I don’t think anybody knows what the strategy is here.
It’s very clear that a number of the proposals that (Trump has) put on the table are unacceptable to American business, let alone the business communities in Mexico and Canada.”
There’s either no strategy, or Trump is trying to get rid of NAFTA altogether, Beatty said, and the American business community is worried.
To destroy the deal would be “very destabilizing for the whole world,” he opined.