Magic number may be 30% in Sask. Party race
Whoever nabs early lead may be able to grind his or her way to the top job
There are probably a few political strategists from various Saskatchewan Party leadership camps spending sleepless nights trying to figure out exactly what number it will take to win.
Well, as Sask. Party supporters gather for their annual convention this weekend — one that will include an allcandidates debate and a fond farewell to Brad Wall — here’s one number that may be worth pondering: 30 per cent.
The first leadership hopeful who gets past 30-percent support may very well become the next premier.
Admittedly, one can’t be definitive on any magic number in a still very unpredictable, five-person race. It’s possible one candidate already has a commanding, insurmountable lead we don’t know about.
But it doesn’t feel that way. Rather, it feels as if the first contender past 30 per cent will have a decided advantage in a long, multiple-ballot contest. Here’s why: If all things were perfectly equal, the five candidates — Tina BeaudryMellor, Ken Cheveldayoff, Alanna Koch, Scott Moe and Gordon Wyant — would each take 20 per cent. Of course, no such equality exists.
Alas, we don’t know what the disparity in support looks like right now.
We can’t even make an educated guess, because candidates are still selling memberships and convincing existing party members to support them.
About all we know comes from the various camps, which should be viewed with skepticism. But let’s take a look at what we have heard and try to come up with a number.
Last week, Koch issued a press release stating her campaign “conducted the first detailed poll of the Saskatchewan Party membership” by NRG Research Group between Oct. 5 and Oct. 14. The news release further claimed “that Alanna is positioned in a three-way cluster at the top” with Cheveldayoff and Moe “within the statistical margin of error.” Her 500-person survey sample would have a margin of error plus or minus 4.38 per cent, 95 per cent of the time.
Koch would not provide her polling numbers or release any additional information, so again, her claim needs be taken with a grain of salt. Moreover, she is not the only one making such claims.
Asked about Koch’s poll, Wyant said this week it “doesn’t bother me very much” that he wasn’t included in Koch’s top three because he says his own internal polling suggests that he is in the top three. Interestingly, no one is claiming they have a big lead ... or a lead at all. This adds to the suspicion the race is close and will be tough sledding.
So, for the sake of argument, let’s say Koch, Wyant, Moe and Cheveldayoff are all somewhat clustered together with one of them in fourth place, with Beaudry-Mellor — the consensus choice among Sask. Party insiders to be the first one out on the mail-in, preferential ballot — in fifth place. One might further speculate that Beaudry-Mellor has single-digit support, but for easy of calculation, let’s say she’s around 10 per cent. That leaves the other four candidates to divvy up the remaining 90 per cent on the first ballot.
And let’s also accept Koch’s assertion that the top three (regardless of who they may be) are clustered within that 4.38-per-cent plus/minus margin of error, and whoever is in fourth place is reasonably close to that cluster. Logic would then dictate the first Sask. Party ballot would range from the front-runner in the mid-to-high 20-percent range to the fourthplace contender in the high teens.
That would mean the first Sask. Party contender to attain 30 per cent support — be it on the first or second ballot — would be in an excellent position for an added reason: With so little policy contrast in the campaigns, it would seem doubtful any one candidate will get a massive boost from any other candidate who drops off subsequent ballots.
So whoever grabs that early lead — essentially, whoever passes 30 per cent first — may grind his or her way to the win.
It would seem doubtful any one candidate will get a massive boost from any other candidate who drops off.