‘SERIOUS DECLINE’ IN LABOUR

The province’s workforce is in tough shape and has shrunk by 11,400 in the past year, says Doug Elliott of Sask Trends Monitor.

If the term “recession” applied to the labour force, Saskatchewan would be in a labour force recession right now.

So says Doug Elliott, statistician and publisher of Sask Trends Monitor.

“We’ve had sort of minor ups and downs in the first part of the year, a 0.1 (per cent) up and a 0.2 down, things like that; 1.1 per cent is a serious decline,” said Elliott, who had previously used the term “slowdown” to describe the province’s economy.

“A recession means it’s actually dropping.”

A recession is economic decline that occurs over two successive quarters. The labour force is made up of people who are employed or actively looking for work.

Saskatchewan’s labour force has shrunk 1.9 per cent (11,400 people) since November last year, and 1.1 per cent (6,400) fewer people were employed.

Since October, 1,000 people had stopped looking for work.

While Saskatchewan’s economic slump was triggered by the oil and gas decline, Elliott pointed to Alberta, which is thriving by comparison.

In Alberta, 1.4 per cent more people were employed in November compared with the year before. Its labour force shrunk by 0.3 per cent in the same period.

“The Alberta government said we’re not going to worry about the deficit. Spending carried on, increased,” said Elliott, while the Saskatchewan government exercised restraint.

“I can’t honestly say that’s why Alberta is coming out of the slowdown and Saskatchewan isn’t. But that’s one of the conclusions you could draw from this.”

Jason Childs, an economist at the University of Regina, sees the situation another way.

“We didn’t fall as far as Alberta did, so we’re not going to recover as quickly as Alberta does, either. We’re not going to get those big jumps right off the hop,” said Childs.

They agree that one thing Alberta is doing well is economic diversification.

“We’re pretty famous for exporting raw materials as is, crude oil, wheat,” Elliott said.

“We can move up the value-add chain in oil and gas … (and) agricultural product,” Childs agreed. However, “that requires a lot of serious investment and a lot of skilled labour … that we don’t always have.”

Further, “Alberta has a bigger population base, and that makes it easier to diversify,” said Childs.

Diversifying an economy can’t be done on a whim, said Childs, and “governments have a very, very bad track record trying to cause their economies to diversify.”

In Saskatchewan’s own history, “There was a point in time when we had government-run boot factories, cardboard box factories. All these things were done in the name of diversification. And they didn’t work,” said Childs.

“Diversification, if it’s going to be meaningful, has to come from real demand and real sustainable demand.”

The best thing for the government to do is to keep tax rates low and keep the regulatory environment steady, to make it easier for people to start businesses, Childs said.

In November, 561,400 people were employed in Saskatchewan and the unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent.

The Aboriginal unemployment rate was 13 per cent.

In Regina, 700 fewer people were working compared with last year, and 700 fewer than in October.

In Saskatoon, 100 more people were working compared to last year, but 200 fewer than in October.

More women were in the labour force month over month (2,900 women) and year over year (400 women), while the number of men in the labour force had declined (3,700 fewer men compared with October, and 11,600 fewer men compared with last November).