What Trudeau, Scheer need to accomplish in 2018
For starters, get pot legalized by Canada Day
Predictions were so much less risky when newspapers were wrapping fish the next day. Now, they tend to linger online like a fetid, fermented herring. Nonetheless, here are five observations and advice on what may, and should, unfold 1 in 2018:
The Liberals really, really need to legalize pot by Canada Day. The party’s brand has been tarnished by the “promise breakers” tag — the fallout from cancelling the commitment to electoral reform and small budget deficits once in office. The government’s own pledge tracker suggests 68 of 364 mandate letter commitments have been met — less than one in five — with another 216 “underway and on track.” Beset by problems like the breakdown of NAFTA and the Phoenix pay system debacle, it would be easy to lose drive and direction. But if the Trudeau Liberals are to retain the trust of voters, they have to show they are keeping their side of the bargain — the most visible manifestation of which is legalized pot. If they don’t fulfil more of their election promises from 2015, why should anyone believe anything 2 they say in 2019?
At the same time as he is implementing his myriad commitments on inclusiveness, Indigenous issues and climate change, Justin Trudeau needs to find new ways to keep voters enthused as he heads into the next election. Polling numbers for the Liberals remain strong, a reflection of an economy that has just recorded its best unemployment numbers in 40 years. But the initial wave of enthusiasm for the Liberals has passed and, in 2018, Trudeau needs to start explaining what a second-term government might look like. He is going to have to come up with a new slate of ideas that are more radical, more inclusive and more ambitious than the last batch of promises — most of which have yet to be met. The danger for the Liberals — and the opportunity for the Conservatives — is that they risk drifting in their definition of “fairness.” In 2015, it meant making taxes more fair for the middle class. In 2019, the Liberals need to guard against being on a different wavelength from people with aspirations who are making their own way in life and want to keep more of their income. Developing a strategy against Conservative leader Andrew Scheer may be the easy part. Without a compelling vision, the government is in danger of running 3 out of steam. Andrew Scheer is going to have to move the dial on public support this year or he may find himself under pressure from his caucus colleagues. Remember, his leadership wasn’t ratified with any great enthusiasm — he received the support of just one in five Conservative members on the first ballot. Rather, it’s fair to say Maxime Bernier’s candidacy was repudiated. My yearend interview with the Conservative leader suggested he sees no need to reform a party that lost 60 seats at the last election — that a rebranding job will suffice. He has made little effort to change his party from its previous Harper incarnation. As such, he has played core voter politics — gearing all his energies to ensuring that people who voted Conservative in the last election do so again. That’s OK, as long as it is a platform for launching a sales pitch aimed at increasing Conservative support above the 30-per-cent ceiling, against which it has been bumping under Scheer. Kicking Senator Lynn Beyak from caucus for promoting the idea that Indigenous Canadians are lazy is a good start to the year. Scheer needs to define the values that would guide him in government — and they need to be a little more progressive and a little less conservative, if he is to attract the swing voters he needs to block another Trudeau majority. Scheer has to offer hope and positivity. He must explain more clearly why he, and not Justin Trudeau, 4 is the future.
The new jobs numbers are welcome news for the government — “the real results of a plan that is working,” according to Finance Minister Bill Morneau. That plan involves the economy growing faster than the debt the Liberals are piling on, thereby reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Having abandoned its own fiscal anchors, the government has given no timeline on a return to balanced budgets. The finance department projects red ink until 2045-46. But the Liberals’ “invest and grow” strategy is vulnerable to attack, particularly in the event of an unexpected shock like new tariffs at the American border. In 2018, the Liberals need to come up with a plan that shows that they have spending and debt under 5 control.
The carillon on Parliament Hill is scheduled to play the theme from the Muppets on the day MPs return to work. Who could argue? Honourable members are often reduced to the status of children’s entertainers — puppets of the party whips. But sometimes, backbench MPs can make a difference. As British Conservative MP Rory Stewart described his own rebellion: “I began to think of Parliament as though it was an elderly Alsatian — generally placid by the fire but just occasionally, if someone stepped on its tail, waking up in a wild fury of barking.” In 2018, we may hear some more barking from MPs, particularly Liberals, who feel like they are wasting their talents in Parliament. There are 183 Liberals in the House, many highly qualified, of whom 31 are in cabinet. There have already been four shuffles and many on the backbench must already know they will never make it around the top table. The conditions are ripe for more Liberal MPs to live up to the promise made in their election platform — to represent their communities and hold the government to account.