Race to succeed Wall tough to predict

In this weekly series, LeaderPost reporter D.C. Fraser and StarPhoenix reporter Alex

MacPherson round up everything happening on the campaign trail as candidates compete to be the next leader of the Saskatchewan Party and premier.

After almost half a year of campaigning, a gruelling five-anda-half months on the highway punctuated by countless hundreds of events and a handful of scandals, the Saskatchewan Party will choose its next leader on Saturday.

With no clear front-runner going into the Sask. Party’s first contested leadership race in a generation, it remains unclear who will succeed Premier Brad Wall and lead the party into the 2020 general election.

In the absence of reliable thirdparty polling, there is little information about who will win. What is clear is that any of the five candidates on the ballot could win — and here’s how that could happen.

TINA BEAUDRY-MELLOR

There is little question that Beaudry-Mellor is the longest shot. She lacks support from a single member of the massive Sask. Party caucus, her campaign has struggled to attract a quarter as much cash as her competitors, and her status as an urban MLA in a predominantly rural part is not an asset.

To her credit, Beaudry-Mellor has stuck with a race few expect her to win. She has released smart policies, acquitted herself well in debates and proved unafraid of criticizing an internal probe into the possible leak of debate questions.

There was also a late push by some candidates, notably Scott Moe, for voters to rank BeaudryMellor high on their ballots, which could make her a contender in later rounds.

But perhaps more importantly, Beaudry-Mellor has in a sense already won by raising her profile, protecting her seat and virtually guaranteeing a high-profile cabinet position in the next government. For an MLA who was elected less than two years ago, that is a significant accomplishment.

KEN CHEVELDAYOFF

Ken Cheveldayoff is widely believed to be among the strongest candidates in the race, and his path to victory is a simple one: Win on the first ballot or establish an unassailable lead out of the gate and hope none of the other candidates are able to sneak up the middle in subsequent rounds of voting.

In this, Cheveldayoff may be aided by Rob Clarke, whose shortlived candidacy ended with a press release urging his supporters to back the Saskatoon Willowgrove MLA. Clarke will of course be hoping he secures the 10 per cent of the vote needed to get his entrance fee back, and even a comparatively small number of votes could give Cheveldayoff a significant boost.

A bigger boost yet may come from name recognition: Cheveldayoff has been in politics for almost 20 years, and spent much of that time building relationships he now hopes will carry him to victory. Few Sask. Party MLAs are better-known than “Chevy.”

On the other hand, Cheveldayoff could be in trouble if the first ballot fails to yield results and votes start moving to one competitor. Insiders generally agree that he is unlikely to be many voters’ second choice, meaning hopes of a Cheveldayoff premiership could be dashed if his lead stagnates while another candidate builds momentum.

ALANNA KOCH

Koch has been the dark horse since rumours of her candidacy began to circulate in early August. A virtual unknown outside government and agriculture circles, the former deputy minister to the premier needed to build her profile among potential voters and her credibility within a caucus whose actions suggest their preference is a sitting MLA.

At the same time, Koch has strong financial backing from businesses and the Sask. Party establishment, and will likely generate significant support in rural Saskatchewan, where the party’s base is concentrated and anti-NDP sentiment runs strong. Her path to the premiership hinges on her ability to draw support away from Moe and the others after the first ballot.

Whether that is possible remains an open question. Koch was among the most polished and prepared candidates during the party’s debates, but that could be offset by questions surrounding an internal party probe and resulting report, which has not been released. In the end, only the vote results will show if Koch was able to overcome the significant hurdles she faced from the beginning.

SCOTT MOE

Scott Moe’s best shot of winning the premiership hinges on his ability to secure downballot votes. His strong caucus support — which includes almost all of the party’s senior cabinet ministers — is liable to result in a decent first-ballot result, but he will need more than that to push past Cheveldayoff and, possibly, Koch to secure the win.

Ultimately, Moe needs BeaudryMellor and Wyant to drop out of the race early and hope their supporters listed him as their second choice.

If that happens, he stands a better chance than anyone of sneaking up the middle in the third round — where many insiders are predicting the voting, and the race, will be determined.

Whether that is possible depends on how people view him. Moe’s campaign was puzzling and at times stagnant.

While he dealt effectively with an old drunk driving conviction that surfaced early in the race and proved more thoughtful and articulate than many expected, his policy platform was scattershot and his campaign made less noise than many others. And that could be decisive.

GORD WYANT

Gord Wyant’s ability to win on Saturday hinges almost entirely on the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation and its 13,000 members. If enough teachers — who are renowned for turning themselves into a political force — bought memberships, he could rocket up the charts. If not, he could be dropped after the second ballot.

Over the last five months, Wyant has run arguably the strongest campaign of any candidate.

His policy platform is comprehensive and well-thought-out, and he has not shied away from taking a stand on issues facing the current government — notably the Global Transportation Hub scandal, which he pledged in September to review using an inquiry.

Despite running an extremely professional campaign and gaining momentum in the closing stage of the race, Wyant’s Liberal ties could hurt him.

Although he publicly ditched his membership card and called for the Sask. Party to renew the coalition on which it was founded, increasingly polarized politics could shut him out of the winner’s circle.

Cheveldayoff has been in politics for almost 20 years, and spent much of that time building relationships he now hopes will carry him to victory.