Opportunity amid threat of trade war
Some exporters may benefit, but could be forced to fend off U.S. competition
Rumblings of a China-U.S. trade war could boost the prospects of some Canadian industries, but would also cause global disruptions and force Canada to defend its markets against heightened American competition.
China announced tariffs Wednesday against U.S. plans to apply US$50 billion worth of tariffs on 106 imports by issuing a list of U.S. goods including soybeans, whisky, beef, industrial chemicals and small aircraft in the escalating dispute.
That’s on top of import charges announced Monday on 128 items including fruit, nuts, pork, ginseng, wine, steel pipe and aluminum scrap in retaliation for an estimated US$3 billion in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland warned on Wednesday the global trading order that Canada helped create faces its greatest threat since the Second World War, if the China-U.S. trade war escalates.
The trade spat had a “very muted effect on the (Canadian) market,” Derek Holt, analyst at The Bank of Nova Scotia said. The agricultural sector dealt with minor losses, with corn down two per cent, but the Canadian currency has not been too affected, which is where you would see the negatives, he said.
This is partly because “rate pressures are on hold and that’s providing a little bit of a safety valve,” Holt added.
When it comes to protecting its industry, Canada has a few tools to tinker with, according to Holt. It can manage trade policy risks with monetary policy, and absorb negative shocks that could emerge from adverse trade policy developments. That’s as long as “cooler heads prevail” in the market, he said.
Meanwhile, Soy Canada executive director Ron Davidson says the latest 25-per-cent levy on U.S. goods could create some opportunities for Canadian exporters, but will also force Canada to fend off imports at home and defend sales to 69 other markets. “What we’re looking at here is substantive instability in the world market while we try to sort out where everybody’s beans are going,” he said.
Davidson said Canadian exporters including Richardson International Ltd., Cargill Ltd. and Viterra Inc. wouldn’t want to hurt longterm connections with foreign markets just to sell more to China.
Canada sold nearly five million tonnes of soybean products valued at $2.7 billion to China last year.
The group representing Canada’s beef and pork producers also sees big growth opportunities in China and Asia, but says a ramp down of American exports to China would boost competition with them in other markets. “The tariff certainly changes the landscape a little bit, but China still remains a very viable market for Canadian exports,” said Marcus Mattinson, spokesman for the Canadian Meat Council.
Canadian red meat exports to China surged to $835 million in 2016, up from $334 million in 2010. The country accounts for about 13 per cent of total Canadian exports.
On top of that, the rebooted Trans-Pacific Partnership could facilitate the enhanced penetration into Pacific Rim countries.
Mattinson said meat producers are monitoring the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.
“But we will continue to work with our government stakeholders and partners to make sure that Canada’s meat supply chain continues to benefit from international trade.”
Corinne Pohlmann, senior vice-president of national affairs and partnerships at the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, which represents more than 110,000 businesses, said she recommends small businesses to diversify away from the U.S. market. Canada’s trade deals with the European Union is another new area to explore, she said.
However, the potential slowdown could hit Canadian firms that rely on the construction and building activity that comes with economic growth, especially those with greater international exposure.
Meanwhile, prices for key industrial metals such as iron ore and copper have already dipped on fears of the trade war and could drop farther still as any slowdown in the global economy would hit at the margins.
Slowing growth could have a knock-on effect on oil demand, with crude prices dipping after the latest tariff announcement. Shares of smaller producers and service firms that rely on continued growth have been hit, while large producers focused more on steady production than growth have been more isolated from such dips.
With Chinese tariffs targeting U.S. agricultural products like apples and soybeans, Canadian producers are concerned that U.S. output will start flooding north in search of markets. Ontario apple farmers have raised alarms at the potential effects on prices while Soy Canada says the tariffs will cause global disruptions and uncertainty.