Population growth likely to benefit Sask. Party

It may seem odd that the segment of Saskatchewan doing the worst in terms of population growth is likely the place that will deliver the Saskatchewan Party another win in 2020.

Nevertheless, it’s very likely that it will be a stagnant rural Saskatchewan electorate that provides Premier Scott Moe’s government with a fourth term two years from now.

It says something about how much growing this province means to Saskatchewan people — even to those people who aren’t sharing in the growth and even when the growth may now be ending.

The Sask. Party government released Statistics Canada figures revealing the province’s population increased by 1,488 from January to March to a record 1,171,240 Saskatchewan people.

That’s an increase of 11,691 in the past year and 157,806 more Saskatchewan people in the past decade, said the government news release, referring to a period that (coincidentally) parallels the Sask. Party’s years in office.

Perhaps the government could be forgiven for a little political bragging.

“Saskatchewan’s population has now grown in 48 consecutive quarters,” said Trade and Export Development Minister Jeremy Harrison, referring to the boom that actually started two years before the Sask. Party’s 2007 election win. “That’s the longest period of sustained growth since quarterly records were first published in 1971.”

This is worth a moment’s consideration in a province that once defined itself by its children moving away. After all, the last three regime changes in Saskatchewan came after election campaigns fought using this very theme.

In 1982, former Progressive Conservative premier Grant Devine’s “there’s so much more we can be” campaign told the story of a rural couple circling Easter on their calendar because that’s when the kids and grandkids would be coming home; In 1991, NDP leader and soon-to-be premier Roy Romanow’s successful campaign advertisements were of a bus pulling up to a farmyard as their parents hugged their daughter goodbye; and in 2007, former Sask. Party premier Brad Wall boldly promised to grow the province by 100,000 people and end the tradition of giving children a set of luggage as a graduation present. What now sets the Sask. Party administration apart is that it had more luck addressing Saskatchewan’s chronic population loss.

The most recent Statistics Canada numbers for the first quarter of 2018 show net growth driven by net international migration (2,731 people) and natural increase (more births than deaths) — a net 1,283 more Saskatchewan people. (With family-age people moving to Alberta and B.C. in the past, there have been times where Saskatchewan has had more deaths than births.) Unfortunately, there are also signs the population growth may be coming to an end. Net interprovincial migration (those moving out to other provinces compared with those moving into Saskatchewan) was -2,526 in the most recent quarter.

This is part of a disturbing trend of increasing negative interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan: From 2014 to 2017, Saskatchewan saw net interprovincial losses of 2,552, 4,897, 5,451 and 9,397, respectively.

In 2017, Saskatchewan lost more people through interprovincial migration than the province attracted new international immigrants (7,377).

Net interprovincial migration numbers have been negative for 21 of the past 22 quarters (compared with positive net interprovincial migration in 17 of the first 19 quarters after the Sask. Party’s November 2007 election). What has kept Saskatchewan’s population growing is the arrival of new Canadians.

However, it should be noted: (A) this is changing, as per the fact net negative interprovincial migration is now outdistancing the international immigrants we are attracting, and; (B) only select parts of the province have benefited from this boom, anyway. More than 80 per cent of Saskatchewan’s growth has been in its two biggest cities, yet the Sask. Party’s strongest support is in rural Saskatchewan, which hasn’t much benefited. Counterintuitive? Perhaps.

Or maybe the Saskatchewan population growth we’ve seen in the past decade is just that important to the people of this province.

Clearly, it is resonating in rural Saskatchewan. Clearly, it will be a big part of any Sask. Party win in 2020.