Northern hopes of a GOP jailbreak
Forget Harper: Trump’s party key to tariff fight
Wednesday’s report from CTV News that Stephen Harper is set to make a “secret visit” to the White House on Monday suggests a crack in the Canadian consensus opposing Donald Trump’s trade policy.
The initiative has “blindsided” the Prime Minister’s Office, CTV said, prompting a reaction on social media.
“Mr. Harper should be joining Team Canada on this one — no surprises and no ‘secret visits,’” said former interim Liberal leader Bob Rae.
The lingering Harper Derangement Syndrome is a distraction. For one thing, Harper was responsible for what may have been the single most effective intervention on Canada’s behalf when he appeared on Fox News and said the U.S. fighting with this country over trade is the “wrong priority.”
For another, the report suggests he will meet John Bolton, U.S. president Donald Trump’s national security adviser, not the president himself. It may be that Harper is simply there in his capacity as chair of the International Democratic Union, the centre-right party leaders’ group.
Even if he does get to talk trade with the president, the former prime minister is unlikely to change Trump’s worldview that alliances and trade pacts have let America down and that it’s time for other countries to look out for themselves.
If you’re looking for developments that might curtail the tariffs on steel and aluminum and forestall the prospect of a similar levy on autos, you’d be better advised to look at the growing discomfort among U.S. Senate Republicans with Trump’s trade policy.
“I think there’s a jailbreak brewing,” said Bob Corker, a Republican senator from Tennessee who has been trying to rein in the administration.
Corker’s latest attempt to frustrate Trump was blocked Tuesday, when a Democratic senator voted down his attempt to add an amendment to a farm bill that would require Trump to get congressional approval before using the national security provision in Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to impose tariffs.
But Corker is not alone in believing the president has abused his authority and “successfully united the world against us.” Another Republican, Jeff Flake of Arizona, has threatened to block action on judicial confirmations until Congress acts on use of Section 232.
“Canada and Mexico are not national security threats. The European Union exporting cars to the U.S. does not represent a national security threat and we ought to push back,” he said.
Senate majority leader Mitch Mcconnell of Kentucky this week expressed his own concerns and backed hearings into the president’s actions by the Senate finance committee, which has jurisdiction over trade.
“Just look at my state,” he said. “We make Toyota Camrys and the price of steel seems to be headed up. We’re the home of bourbon — proudly — and the price of bourbon seems to be headed up. So there is concern. We’ve all discussed this with the president. A lot.”
Trump continues to tweet out the threat that he will apply similar tariffs to autos, but he sounds increasingly like a man trying to overwhelm his poker opponents with a manic blend of tics and twitches, while babbling like an accident victim so they can’t figure out he’s bluffing.
At an event in Fargo, North Dakota, on Wednesday, he even compared the trade battle to poker. “We can’t lose,” he said, urging people to give the negotiations more time. “Just play the game for a little while.”
In a tweet he said the tariffs are being used to strike trade deals to America’s advantage.
“The bottom line is we have charged a very substantial tax to some people. They are coming back to negotiate, and frankly, if they don’t negotiate, I’m okay with that because I’d rather get the tax.”
The strategy seems to be working for the president.
The prospect of bilateral deal between the U.S. and Mexico was “very close,” according to Ted Mckinney, the U.S. agriculture department’s undersecretary, but not so near with Canada, as the two sides continued to disagree on dairy.
Mckinney said the U.S. is not trying to “dictate” how Canada manages its dairy industry but wants to end the pricing system on ultrafiltered milk and other protein-rich dairy ingredients used to make cheese and yogurt. These products were entering Canada duty free until Canadian dairy farmers and producers persuaded regulators to introduce a new “ingredients strategy” that cut U.S. farmers out of the market.
The suggestion from McKinney is that access for U.S. producers is the hold-up. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada is prepared to show “flexibility” on dairy but remains opposed to the imposition of a sunset clause that would automatically terminate the agreement unless the parties agreed otherwise.
U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer told Republican House leaders Wednesday that he remains confident a new NAFTA deal can be struck, but that he is not planning to drop his demands for a sunset provision.
The news was not well received, representative Lloyd Smucker told Inside Trade.
The focus in Canada is, understandably, all about what the government or interlocutors like Harper can do to shift the immovable object that is Donald Trump. But Canada has limited ability to counter a determined president.
Congress has a greater range of options. The American constitution was designed to sacrifice efficiency for liberty, with its robust checks and balances. That means nothing is going to happen quickly.
But many senators in the president’s own party are not happy and there is a growing feeling that Congress needs to re-assert its authority over trade matters.
Rising bourbon prices and soaring steel prices in Kentucky are likely to be more decisive in that debate than anything said by any Canadian.