Regina byelection win won’t cure problems for Meili’s NDP

Party continues to ignore issues that resonate with rural Saskatchewan voters

The NDP should win the Sept. 12 Regina Northeast byelection, but that’s not really its issue. The issue is: What difference does it make if the NDP does win?

As has been the case for more than a decade, that’s been a difficult question for Saskatchewan New Democrats to answer.

Of course, one shouldn’t just assume this byelection is a complete shoo-in for leader Ryan Meili and his candidate Yens Pedersen. After all, former finance minister Kevin Doherty won Regina Northeast by 1,391 votes in 2011 and was re-elected by 1,008 votes in 2016.

That said, this Regina seat has had an NDP MLA for all but 10 years since it was created in 1967. Times may have changed, but if the NDP can’t reclaim a Regina bedrock seat in a byelection to replace the finance minister of a government that ran up record debt, cut services and raised taxes, this party is in far worse shape than anyone realizes.

We do know the NDP is in bad shape at all levels everywhere in the province ... even in this city.

After finally breaking through three years ago with its first Saskatchewan NDP MP since 2000, the party is now in an uproar over the ousting of Regina Lewvan MP Erin Weir from the federal caucus over allegations of ... well, we’re still not quite sure over what, but it evidently has something to do with his awkwardness around women. Whatever the situation, it’s aggravated some local New Democrats to the point of contemplating withdrawing their support for federal leader Jagmeet Singh and focusing on the provincial party.

If this increased focus comes to pass, it may be as close to a favour as they can expect from Singh. Unhelpful to Meili is the burden of federal NDP policies like opposition to the Trans Mountain pipeline. (The choice in a federal election a year from now is between Andrew Scheer’s troubled Conservatives, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Singh’s NDP. These are not halcyon days for Saskatchewan voters.)

And when it comes to the provincial NDP, Meili’s biggest problem might very well be similar to Singh’s struggle to relate to the common voter.

Earlier this month, the Starphoenix’s Alex Macpherson and the Leader-post’s D.C. Fraser did an excellent piece on Meili’s struggle since becoming leader in March — specifically, the NDP’S ongoing inability to track issues that might change voters’ intentions.

“The latest budget, with its rising debt levels and dwindling deficit, hardly came up in Question Period. Other major issues were at times overlooked in favour of domestic violence, the ongoing opioid crisis and environmental concerns,” the pair wrote. “Those topics are important, but they don’t resonate well in rural areas and small urban centres, which is exactly where the NDP needs to win votes to have a chance of winning — or even making gains — in the 2020 general election.”

It’s pretty much a perfect summation of a party long haunted not only by its inability to relate to rural voters in Saskatchewan, but also to urban working stiffs who have long been the base of support for this party. It’s a problem that seems to be only getting worse ... and one that won’t likely change with a Pedersen win on Sept. 12.

As a bright young lawyer who unsuccessfully ran for leader in 2007, Pedersen would add to the small NDP opposition. This is just one reason caucus members have been campaigning tirelessly to see that Pedersen joins them.

Moreover, with Cut Knife-raised Pedersen’s farm background, one might think he could be a bridge for the NDP to those rural/small urban centres. But coming from his family’s leftwing, National Farmers Union background, it’s questionable whether Pedersen relates any better to today’s rural Saskatchewan than existing caucus members.

Even if Pedersen does win, he might not help connect where the NDP most needs connection.

Adding another left-leaning urbanite won’t be a cure for Meili and the NDP. Really, it’s just a continuation of a decades-long problem.