A Moe likable leader pays dividends for Sask. Party in 2018

The lesson we learned in 2018 is pretty much the same one we have been taught and retaught for the previous decade ... or perhaps much longer:

It pays big dividends to be likable in Saskatchewan politics.

Scott Moe did not become premier of the province because he was the most experienced candidate, or the smartest candidate, or maybe even the most politically savvy candidate.

Supporters of other Saskatchewan Party leadership contenders like Alanna Koch or Ken Cheveldayoff or Gord Wyant or Tina Beaudry-mellor could likely make the case that each of their respective candidates likely surpassed Moe when it came to any or all of the above attributes.

But what was evident from the moment Moe kicked off his leadership campaign in September 2017 with 22 MLAS from the 50-member Sask. Party caucus, was his likability factor. Surprisingly, it’s been somewhat similar to what the Sask. Party enjoyed under Brad Wall.

Of course, there is a difference between being popular with your own party following, and having wide-ranging popularity that extends to all of the electorate.

However, the advantage for conservative-based political parties in Saskatchewan is that it’s a lot easier for their leaders to be popular. This has been the reality for a while now.

Moe’s success has been punctuated by a little talked about, but surprising Saskatchewan political story in 2018: His personal popularity has met or exceeded Wall’s.

According to the March Angus Reid survey of premier popularity in Canada, Moe was tied with B.C. NDP Premier John Horgan at a 52-per-cent approval rating. That represented virtually no fall-off from Wall’s 53-per-cent popularity in December 2017, and a significant increase from Wall’s 45 per cent in March 2017.

That the public had such a positive view of Moe — when he was coming into the premier’s office as a relative unknown in the middle of a messy deficit situation — is rather telling.

For most of the past decade, as Wall’s popularity in the Angus Reid survey soared to the 60- and even 70-per-cent stratosphere that most provincial leaders could only dream of, many thought this was a phenomenon tied to Wall and the good economic times that coincided with his arrival as premier.

But it may be more than that. Saskatchewan voters prefer conservative leaders in the same way they have simply preferred conservative parties. Since the demise of that first Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) government, we have been governed more days by non-social democratic government than not. Moreover, sending a non-conservative MP to Ottawa has been a rarity for three decades now.

And that last great 16-year run under Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert from 1991 to 2007 came in the wake of the Progressive Conservative government caucus allowance fraud scandal that spelled the demise of the rightwing alternative for Saskatchewan voters. As it is, the then-upstart Sask. Party almost won in both 1999 (when it had a larger popular vote) and 2003.

It is fair to say any of the Sask. Party leadership hopefuls would be doing relatively well, but it would also be fair to say that Moe was likely best suited to capitalize on Wall’s momentum.

Among the “conservatives” running for the Sask. Party leadership, Moe’s policies of rescinding tax increases and restoring education spending likely best resonated among the wider electorate. So has Moe’s rather affable nature. And the Sask. Party strategy seems aimed at protecting this image.

The NDP Opposition has already noted Moe answered only 37 questions this fall sitting — slightly more than half of what Wall usually answered during fall sittings. More damning issues like the Global Transportation Hub (GTH) and the Regina bypass were left to their respective ministers.

Finally, there has been a concerted effort to keep Moe on the simple-but-popular pro-pipeline/anti-carbon tax message track that’s been an especially easy sell in Saskatchewan.

Expect to see a concerted effort by the Sask. Party in the coming year to try to keep Moe’s popularity high, with simple messaging and by separating the leader from controversies.

It remains all about keeping the leader popular.